Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (41%) · Pelicans at 51¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 14

Grizzlies50¢Pelicans50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 41%

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

-$28.47

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies50%

Pelicans51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans7 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares26,303

Combined PnL-$117.99

Grizzlies10 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares16,840

Combined PnL+$89.52

Pelicans — 41%Grizzlies — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Pelicansavg 51¢	$7.7K	$7.6K	-$75.14	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Pelicansavg 50.9¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$91.42	9% 21-214 (235)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$49.67	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
PP ppku6298CTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$23.27	7% 9-115 (124)
AY ay118CTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.03	24% 28-91 (119)
73 739633786CTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.38	8% 17-199 (216)
LI LightParadox	Pelicansavg 46.5¢	$287.16	$308.81	+$21.65	35% 749-1385 (2134)
VE Venusian	Pelicansavg 46¢	$230	$250	+$20	34% 735-1404 (2139)
nigiri99CTR	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$220	$200	-$20	52% 471-427 (898)
NM NM-PCTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$171.5	$175	+$3.5	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$171.5	$175	+$3.5	33% 251-499 (750)
MA MadridTime<$100	Pelicansavg 46¢	$79.53	$86.45	+$6.92	36% 761-1361 (2122)
38 38791873984189	Pelicansavg 50¢	$136.5	$70	+$0	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 52.7¢	$15.8	$15	-$0.8	53% 388-339 (727)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pelicansavg 50¢	$12.21	$12.21	-$0	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	40% 584-893 (1477)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$1.9	$1.88	-$0.02	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Pelicans

Invested

$7,664.57

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$75.14

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Pelicans

Invested

$5,001.22

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$91.42

Record

21-214 (235)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,433.67

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$49.67

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

ppku6298CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,280

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$23.27

Record

9-115 (124)

ay118CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,767.05

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.03

Record

24%

28-91 (119)

739633786CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,212.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.38

Record

17-199 (216)

LightParadox

Pelicans

Invested

$287.16

Value

$308.81

PnL

+$21.65

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Venusian

Pelicans

Invested

$230

Value

$250

PnL

+$20

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

nigiri99CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$220

Value

$200

PnL

-$20

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

NM-PCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$171.5

Value

$175

PnL

+$3.5

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$171.5

Value

$175

PnL

+$3.5

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

MadridTime<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$79.53

Value

$86.45

PnL

+$6.92

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

38791873984189

Pelicans

Invested

$136.5

Value

$70

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$15.8

Value

$15

PnL

-$0.8

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Pan9X<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$12.21

Value

$12.21

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

suntoriCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.