Spread: Knicks (-6.5)

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (58%) · Knicks at 56¢ · $68K held · ends Nov 14

Knicks56¢Pacers44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$68.0K

Combined PnL

-$646.57

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 56.5¢

+7% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

11 of 19 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks56%

Pacers44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks11 traders

Total Value$41.1K

Total Shares72,483

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Pacers8 traders

Total Value$26.0K

Total Shares60,421

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Knicks — 58%Pacers — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPacers 64% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 56% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Knicksavg 52.3¢	$30.9K	$33.1K	+$2.2K	49% 611-642 (1253)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pacersavg 49¢	$22.3K	$19.6K	$-2.7K	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
jodarCTR	Pacersavg 44¢	$6.2K	$6.0K	-$140.6	17% 4-19 (23)
HO HomeRunHazard	Knicksavg 55.9¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$28.31	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
PL pltrkr111	Knicksavg 51¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$98.04	4% 22-532 (554)
SE sentrio	Knicksavg 56¢	$489.66	$490.99	+$1.33	43% 808-1065 (1873)
nigiri99	Knicksavg 56¢	$486.08	$490.42	+$4.34	52% 471-427 (898)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Knicksavg 55.8¢	$402.72	$403.74	+$1.02	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 55.8¢	$252.22	$253.24	+$1.02
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 43¢	$150.5	$150.5	+$0
PU purplegatto	Knicksavg 56¢	$373.44	$376.78	+$3.33	68% 2627-1220 (3847)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Knicksavg 56¢	$346.5	$346.5	+$0	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 56¢	$196	$196	-$0
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 43¢	$150.5	$150.5	+$0
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Knicksavg 51¢	$210.31	$230.93	+$20.62	51% 3819-3610 (7429)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Pacersavg 49¢	$233.63	$205.02	-$28.61	49% 516-536 (1052)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Knicksavg 50¢	$600	$198	-$2	75% 112-37 (149)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 50¢	$100	$112	+$12
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 50¢	$100	$86	-$14
38 38791873984189	Knicksavg 56¢	$106.96	$106.96	-$0	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SU suntoriCTR	Pacersavg 50¢	$101.28	$82.92	-$13.42	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Pacersavg 47¢	$58.46	$53.48	-$4.97	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Knicksavg 51¢	$43.86	$48.16	+$4.3	55% 248-199 (447)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Knicksavg 56¢	$33.6	$33.9	+$0.3	45% 214-259 (473)
PA Pan9X<$100	Knicksavg 51¢	$18.87	$20.72	+$1.85	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Pacersavg 46¢	$13.8	$12.9	-$0.9	53% 388-339 (727)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pacersavg 48¢	$7.2	$6.45	-$0.75	34% 735-1404 (2139)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pacersavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.15	-$0.25	40% 584-893 (1477)

Multicoloured-Serf

Knicks

Invested

$30,913.45

Value

$33.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pacers

Invested

$22,304.4

Value

$19.6K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

jodarCTR

Pacers

Invested

$6,186.4

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$140.6

Record

17%

4-19 (23)

HomeRunHazard

Knicks

Invested

$5,129.9

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$28.31

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

pltrkr111

Knicks

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$98.04

Record

22-532 (554)

sentrio

Knicks

Invested

$489.66

Value

$490.99

PnL

+$1.33

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

nigiri99

Knicks

Invested

$486.08

Value

$490.42

PnL

+$4.34

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

GC-PARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$402.72

Value

$403.74

PnL

+$1.02

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Knicks$252.2255.8¢+$1.02

Pacers$150.543¢+$0

purplegatto

Knicks

Invested

$373.44

Value

$376.78

PnL

+$3.33

Record

68%

2627-1220 (3847)

NM-PARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$346.5

Value

$346.5

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Knicks$19656¢-$0

Pacers$150.543¢+$0

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Knicks

Invested

$210.31

Value

$230.93

PnL

+$20.62

Record

51%

3819-3610 (7429)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Pacers

Invested

$233.63

Value

$205.02

PnL

-$28.61

Record

49%

516-536 (1052)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$600

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Both legs:

Invested

$106.96

Value

$106.96

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

suntoriCTR

Pacers

Invested

$101.28

Value

$82.92

PnL

-$13.42

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$58.46

Value

$53.48

PnL

-$4.97

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Knicks

Invested

$43.86

Value

$48.16

PnL

+$4.3

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

Forecastication2<$100

Knicks

Invested

$33.6

Value

$33.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

Pan9X<$100

Knicks

Invested

$18.87

Value

$20.72

PnL

+$1.85

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$13.8

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$0.9

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$7.2

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$0.75

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.25

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

11 of 19 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPacers 64% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 56% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.