Consensus PnL $13K · win rate 86% (6–1, n=7) · PM monthly #807 · holds 96 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.1K
Record
6W / 1L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 7 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#374
Source
PM monthly #807
Record (90 d)
6/7 · 86%
Trades
1,007
Markets
138
Volume
$54.5K
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Top consensus positions
96 in listed consensus markets · 30 of 96 on the consensus side (31%)- Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?Yes $8.8K · now 62¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ian Buck be the next CEO of NVIDIA?Yes $1.8K · now 28¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (No)
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?No $1.4K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (76% of 29)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes $1.3K · now 16¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No $1.3K · now 25¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.1K · now 10¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes $890 · now 62¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
- Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Yes $775 · now 31¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
7 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 53¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where guilttrip's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 57%(won 100% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.