Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 219.5

3 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 51¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 17%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$70.04

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 18 top traders (17%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,409

Combined PnL-$95.64

Over15 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,241

Combined PnL+$25.6

Under — 17%Over — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 73% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	Underavg 51.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$69.33	5% 24-459 (483)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 50.8¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$26.26	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$596.55	$607.94	+$11.39	33% 251-499 (750)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 50.1¢	$604.92	$597.47	-$7.45	52% 471-427 (898)
FO forecastication4CTR	Overavg 49¢	$573.79	$573.79	+$0	31% 134-299 (433)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$402.43	$408.49	+$6.06	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$388.84	$393.36	+$4.53	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$222.19	$229.13	+$6.94	21% 156-572 (728)
GA GaditimaCTR	Overavg 47¢	$116.56	$121.52	+$4.96	47% 224-251 (475)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$68.73	$70.16	+$1.43	35% 735-1379 (2114)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$34.9	$35.48	+$0.57	43% 808-1065 (1873)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 48.3¢	$63.79	$16.44	+$0.57	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$35.16	$13.15	+$1.52	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$10.7	$10.92	+$0.22	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48.1¢	$10.56	$10.76	+$0.2	53% 388-339 (727)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$748.48	$6.98	-$5.33	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.5	-$0.05	40% 584-893 (1477)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.45	-$0	35% 749-1385 (2134)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$2,136.78

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$69.33

Record

24-459 (483)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,660.81

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$26.26

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$596.55

Value

$607.94

PnL

+$11.39

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$604.92

Value

$597.47

PnL

-$7.45

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

forecastication4CTR

Over

Invested

$573.79

Value

$573.79

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

134-299 (433)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$402.43

Value

$408.49

PnL

+$6.06

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$388.84

Value

$393.36

PnL

+$4.53

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$222.19

Value

$229.13

PnL

+$6.94

Record

21%

156-572 (728)

GaditimaCTR

Over

Invested

$116.56

Value

$121.52

PnL

+$4.96

Record

47%

224-251 (475)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.73

Value

$70.16

PnL

+$1.43

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.9

Value

$35.48

PnL

+$0.57

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.79

Value

$16.44

PnL

+$0.57

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.16

Value

$13.15

PnL

+$1.52

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.7

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.56

Value

$10.76

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$748.48

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$5.33

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.05

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 18 top traders (17%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 73% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.