Bucks vs. Magic

5 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (22%) · Magic at 78¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 14

Bucks23¢Magic77¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.4K

Combined PnL

-$50.8

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 77.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

5 of 23 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bucks23%

Magic78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic5 traders

Total Value$38.1K

Total Shares49,150

Combined PnL-$243.43

Bucks18 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares47,565

Combined PnL+$192.63

Magic — 22%Bucks — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TI ticklepickles444	Magicavg 78¢	$37.8K	$37.6K	-$242.5	— 2-2 (4)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Bucksavg 22¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$71.79	44% 26-33 (59)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bucksavg 22¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$61.13	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
HI hi774cCTR	Bucksavg 22¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$45.48	21% 156-572 (728)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 22.3¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$12.5	53% 1030-921 (1951)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Magicavg 77¢	$609.98	$612.48	+$2.5	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 77¢	$384.98	$387.48	+$2.5
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 22.5¢	$225	$225	+$0
PU purplegattoCTR	Bucksavg 23¢	$394.91	$386.33	-$8.58	68% 2627-1220 (3847)
HY hydra1248	Magicavg 77¢	$304.47	$304.47	+$0	76% 147-47 (194)
SE sentrioCTR	Bucksavg 22¢	$295.73	$302.45	+$6.72	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GC GC-PCTR	Bucksavg 22.5¢	$225	$225	+$0	33% 251-499 (750)
SU suntori	Magicavg 77.7¢	$157.11	$155.77	-$1.34	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
38 38791873984189CTR	Bucksavg 22¢	$145.35	$86.05	+$3.7	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Bucksavg 23¢	$56.12	$56.12	+$0	52% 471-427 (898)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Bucksavg 23¢	$42.33	$42.33	+$0	22% 24-84 (108)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bucksavg 22.4¢	$29.35	$29.47	+$0.12	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Bucksavg 23¢	$28.75	$28.75	-$0	45% 214-259 (473)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Magicavg 76¢	$23.5	$23.81	+$0.31	61% 1003-631 (1634)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Bucksavg 23.3¢	$19.89	$19.62	-$0.27	30% 77-180 (257)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bucksavg 22.8¢	$87.46	$17.03	+$3.11	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Magicavg 77¢	$16.48	$16.59	+$0.11	51% 46-45 (91)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Bucksavg 22¢	$11	$11.25	+$0.25	26% 250-703 (953)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Bucksavg 22¢	$11	$11.25	+$0.25	39% 1080-1659 (2739)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Bucksavg 32¢	$19.33	$8.3	-$3.62	47% 224-251 (475)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bucksavg 22¢	$2.2	$2.25	+$0.05	40% 584-893 (1477)

ticklepickles444

Magic

Invested

$37,830

Value

$37.6K

PnL

-$242.5

Record

—

2-2 (4)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Bucks

Invested

$3,158.98

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$71.79

Record

44%

26-33 (59)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bucks

Invested

$2,689.61

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$61.13

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

hi774cCTR

Bucks

Invested

$2,001

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$45.48

Record

21%

156-572 (728)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,450

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$12.5

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

NM-PARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$609.98

Value

$612.48

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Invested

$394.91

Value

$386.33

PnL

-$8.58

Record

68%

2627-1220 (3847)

hydra1248

Magic

Invested

$304.47

Value

$304.47

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

147-47 (194)

sentrioCTR

Bucks

Invested

$295.73

Value

$302.45

PnL

+$6.72

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

GC-PCTR

Bucks

Invested

$225

Value

$225

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

suntori

Magic

Invested

$157.11

Value

$155.77

PnL

-$1.34

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

38791873984189CTR

Bucks

Invested

$145.35

Value

$86.05

PnL

+$3.7

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$56.12

Value

$56.12

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$42.33

Value

$42.33

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

24-84 (108)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$29.35

Value

$29.47

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$28.75

Value

$28.75

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

darkumbreon88<$100

Magic

Invested

$23.5

Value

$23.81

PnL

+$0.31

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

OddstormCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$19.89

Value

$19.62

PnL

-$0.27

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$87.46

Value

$17.03

PnL

+$3.11

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Magic

Invested

$16.48

Value

$16.59

PnL

+$0.11

Record

51%

46-45 (91)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$11

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$11

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

39%

1080-1659 (2739)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$19.33

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$3.62

Record

47%

224-251 (475)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

5 of 23 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.