Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 52¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$9.7K
$1.89
50¢ → 51.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 50¢ | $4.7K | $4.8K | +$140.04 | 50% 2262-2219 (4481) |
 nehcnehcCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $4.7K | $4.6K | -$141.82 | 34% 43-83 (126) |
 nigiri99 | Overavg 50.8¢ | $304.49 | $308.49 | +$4 | 53% 472-427 (899) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $5.83 | $5.61 | -$0.22 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.55 | -$0.1 | 40% 589-893 (1482) |
Invested
$4,667.92
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$140.04
Record
50%
2262-2219 (4481)
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,727.5
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$141.82
Record
34%
43-83 (126)
nigiri99Invested
$304.49
Value
$308.49
PnL
+$4
Record
53%
472-427 (899)
Invested
$5.83
Value
$5.61
PnL
-$0.22
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.1
Record
40%
589-893 (1482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.