Slovenia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 66¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 13

Over35¢Under65¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.7K

Combined PnL

$74.72

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 65.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares17,066

Combined PnL+$217.74

Over8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares13,633

Combined PnL-$143.02

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 64.2¢	$10.0K	$10.2K	+$203.24	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 35.7¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$22.93	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 36¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$50.85	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
└ Over leg	Overavg 36¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$755.07	$805.92	+$50.85
0xheavy888	Underavg 64¢	$728.36	$728.36	-$0	53% 388-339 (727)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 42.6¢	$832.27	$674.13	-$158.14	52% 471-427 (898)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 36¢	$491.8	$491.36	-$0.44	43% 808-1065 (1873)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 36.5¢	$427.36	$422.56	-$4.8	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 36.5¢	$337.68	$333.06	-$4.63	33% 251-499 (750)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 36¢	$285.71	$285.71	+$0	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 64¢	$214.83	$214.83	-$0	22% 266-965 (1231)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 58.3¢	$95.36	$104.65	+$9.29	56% 307-245 (552)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 36¢	$348.63	$41.16	+$2.51	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 56¢	$33.6	$38.4	+$4.8	47% 189-212 (401)
GH ghorrock	Underavg 64¢	$115.29	$3.31	-$0.03	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.75	$3.2	+$0.45	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$1.8	-$0.45	44% 391-495 (886)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$10,004.03

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$203.24

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$2,705.62

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$22.93

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,347.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$50.85

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Both legs:

Over$1,592.0536¢-$0

Under$755.0760¢+$50.85

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$728.36

Value

$728.36

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$832.27

Value

$674.13

PnL

-$158.14

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$491.8

Value

$491.36

PnL

-$0.44

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$427.36

Value

$422.56

PnL

-$4.8

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$337.68

Value

$333.06

PnL

-$4.63

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$285.71

Value

$285.71

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$214.83

Value

$214.83

PnL

-$0

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$95.36

Value

$104.65

PnL

+$9.29

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$348.63

Value

$41.16

PnL

+$2.51

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$33.6

Value

$38.4

PnL

+$4.8

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

ghorrock

Under

Invested

$115.29

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.75

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.45

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.