Will Kuwait vs. Syria end in a draw?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 88¢ · $839 held · ended Nov 13

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$838.81

Combined PnL

-$103.06

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 87.5¢

+34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$553.95

Total Shares824

Combined PnL+$16.98

Yes7 traders

Total Value$176.15

Total Shares868

Combined PnL-$120.04

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 65¢	$386.53	$398.42	+$11.89	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 65.3¢	$131.27	$134.67	+$3.4	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$109.17	$108.71	-$0.46	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.9¢	$59.14	$58.39	-$0.76
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.8¢	$50.02	$50.32	+$0.3
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.6¢	$80.31	$76.56	-$3.75	35% 749-1385 (2134)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$125.73	$46.27	-$79.46	35% 735-1379 (2114)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$56.75	$20.86	-$35.89	34% 735-1404 (2139)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$18	$17.75	-$0.25	36% 761-1361 (2122)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 77¢	$10.29	$11.03	+$0.74	46% 781-902 (1683)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.4¢	$10	$10.88	+$0.88	10% 11-100 (111)
BL BlackMamba08<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$5.75	$6.7	+$0.95	35% 11-20 (31)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.5¢	$4.25	$3.2	-$1.05	57% 13-10 (23)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.13	$3.13	+$0	53% 631-566 (1197)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.15	$0.63	-$0.52	26% 250-703 (953)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$386.53

Value

$398.42

PnL

+$11.89

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$131.27

Value

$134.67

PnL

+$3.4

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$109.17

Value

$108.71

PnL

-$0.46

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Invested

$80.31

Value

$76.56

PnL

-$3.75

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$125.73

Value

$46.27

PnL

-$79.46

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.75

Value

$20.86

PnL

-$35.89

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$10.29

Value

$11.03

PnL

+$0.74

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$0.88

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

BlackMamba08<$100

Invested

$5.75

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$0.95

Record

35%

11-20 (31)

guilttripCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.25

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$1.05

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$3.13

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$0.52

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.