Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 224.5

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 52¢ · $41K held · ends Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.9K

Combined PnL

$88.5

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 51.5¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 17 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares26,627

Combined PnL+$621.91

Over9 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares21,852

Combined PnL-$533.41

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 54% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Over 53% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 50.3¢	$15.6K	$15.3K	-$320.13	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.3¢	$12.1K	$11.7K	-$425.59
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$105.46
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 49¢	$11.6K	$12.2K	+$594.16	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$141.82	34% 43-83 (126)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 51¢	$4.7K	$4.3K	-$320.45	21% 156-572 (728)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 50.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$69.57	43% 808-1065 (1873)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 50.8¢	$738.42	$730.46	-$7.96	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$350	$367.5	+$17.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.8¢	$388.42	$362.96	-$25.46
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$707	$700	-$7	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$350	$367.5	+$17.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$357	$332.5	-$24.5
DA DanielsDixon	Underavg 52¢	$520	$510	-$10	8% 5-58 (63)
nigiri99	Underavg 51¢	$453.7	$410.55	+$12.85	52% 471-427 (898)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 50¢	$383.15	$402.31	+$19.16	48% 677-745 (1422)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 48¢	$220.24	$220.24	+$0	35% 735-1379 (2114)
AY ay118	Underavg 51¢	$122.09	$125.68	+$3.59	24% 28-91 (119)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$37.23	$34.68	-$2.55	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 50.7¢	$37.14	$24.47	-$1.89	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51.9¢	$20.48	$20.3	-$0.18	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$450.56	$19.44	+$2.39	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GA Gaditima<$100	Underavg 48¢	$15.31	$16.74	+$1.43	47% 224-251 (475)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 48¢	$9.6	$10.5	+$0.9	53% 388-339 (727)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$8.74	$9.12	+$0.38	36% 761-1361 (2122)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 47.3¢	$7.1	$7.2	+$0.1	40% 584-893 (1477)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$15,612.56

Value

$15.3K

PnL

-$320.13

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

Both legs:

Over$12,097.1850.3¢-$425.59

Under$3,515.3950¢+$105.46

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$11,645.63

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$594.16

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$4,727.5

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$141.82

Record

34%

43-83 (126)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$4,669.37

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$320.45

Record

21%

156-572 (728)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$1,302.07

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$69.57

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$738.42

Value

$730.46

PnL

-$7.96

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Under$35050¢+$17.5

Over$388.4250.8¢-$25.46

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$707

Value

$700

PnL

-$7

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Invested

$520

Value

$510

PnL

-$10

Record

5-58 (63)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$453.7

Value

$410.55

PnL

+$12.85

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$383.15

Value

$402.31

PnL

+$19.16

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$220.24

Value

$220.24

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

ay118

Under

Invested

$122.09

Value

$125.68

PnL

+$3.59

Record

24%

28-91 (119)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.23

Value

$34.68

PnL

-$2.55

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.14

Value

$24.47

PnL

-$1.89

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$20.48

Value

$20.3

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$450.56

Value

$19.44

PnL

+$2.39

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Gaditima<$100

Under

Invested

$15.31

Value

$16.74

PnL

+$1.43

Record

47%

224-251 (475)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$9.6

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.74

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$0.38

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.1

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 17 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 54% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Over 53% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.