Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 13 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 223.5

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Over (65%) · Over at 49¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 65%

Total Value

$36.6K

Combined PnL

-$368.6

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 48.5¢

-3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 20 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares28,330

Combined PnL+$165.74

Over13 traders

Total Value$22.0K

Total Shares45,231

Combined PnL-$534.34

Under — 35%Over — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 50.9¢	$12.7K	$12.9K	+$153.53	53% 535-466 (1001)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 50¢	$13.1K	$12.6K	-$373.03	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
FU Fund01CTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$100	— 3-1 (4)
AY ay118	Underavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.77	24% 28-91 (119)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10.34	52% 471-427 (898)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 49¢	$879.14	$870.17	-$8.97	35% 735-1379 (2114)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 51¢	$592.99	$592.48	-$0.51	43% 808-1065 (1873)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 49¢	$496.69	$491.62	-$5.07	36% 761-1361 (2122)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 49¢	$400.72	$396.68	-$4.04	48% 677-745 (1422)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 50.5¢	$349.72	$335.87	-$13.85	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 49¢	$309	$305.85	-$3.15	49% 611-642 (1253)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 51.4¢	$299.7	$297.33	-$2.37	33% 251-499 (750)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 49¢	$256.44	$256.22	-$0.22	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$464.04	$193.89	-$13	53% 1030-921 (1951)
73 739633786	Underavg 49¢	$181.79	$183.65	+$1.86	8% 17-199 (216)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 50¢	$119.52	$119.52	+$0	34% 735-1404 (2139)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51.1¢	$27.51	$26.89	-$0.62	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
TX txwd9991<$100	Underavg 49¢	$22.98	$23.22	+$0.23	5% 4-82 (86)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 51.7¢	$20.5	$19.7	-$0.8	53% 388-339 (727)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$5	$5	+$0	40% 584-893 (1477)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$12,721.45

Value

$12.9K

PnL

+$153.53

Record

53%

535-466 (1001)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$13,096.6

Value

$12.6K

PnL

-$373.03

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

Fund01CTR

Over

Invested

$4,950

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$100

Record

—

3-1 (4)

ay118

Under

Invested

$1,153

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.77

Record

24%

28-91 (119)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$1,013.81

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.34

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$879.14

Value

$870.17

PnL

-$8.97

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$592.99

Value

$592.48

PnL

-$0.51

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$496.69

Value

$491.62

PnL

-$5.07

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$400.72

Value

$396.68

PnL

-$4.04

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$349.72

Value

$335.87

PnL

-$13.85

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$309

Value

$305.85

PnL

-$3.15

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$299.7

Value

$297.33

PnL

-$2.37

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$256.44

Value

$256.22

PnL

-$0.22

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$464.04

Value

$193.89

PnL

-$13

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

739633786

Under

Invested

$181.79

Value

$183.65

PnL

+$1.86

Record

17-199 (216)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$119.52

Value

$119.52

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$27.51

Value

$26.89

PnL

-$0.62

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

txwd9991<$100

Under

Invested

$22.98

Value

$23.22

PnL

+$0.23

Record

4-82 (86)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$20.5

Value

$19.7

PnL

-$0.8

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 20 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.