Florida State vs. Pittsburgh: O/U 51.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
2 arb excluded
$3.4K
-$93.65
53.9¢ → 52.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 55¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$99.68 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 52¢ | $781.54 | $789.05 | +$7.51 | 51% 2261-2214 (4475) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 47.4¢ | $467.24 | $467.77 | +$0.53 | 48% 2786-3040 (5826) |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $346.5 | $350 | +$3.5 | 33% 251-499 (750) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51¢ | $178.5 | $183.75 | +$5.25 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48¢ | $168 | $166.25 | -$1.75 | |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $346.5 | $350 | +$3.5 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51¢ | $178.5 | $183.75 | +$5.25 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48¢ | $168 | $166.25 | -$1.75 | |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $36.18 | $34.17 | -$2.01 | 55% 248-199 (447) |
Invested
$1,465.08
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$99.68
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Invested
$781.54
Value
$789.05
PnL
+$7.51
Record
51%
2261-2214 (4475)
Invested
$467.24
Value
$467.77
PnL
+$0.53
Record
48%
2786-3040 (5826)
Invested
$346.5
Value
$350
PnL
+$3.5
Record
33%
251-499 (750)
Both legs:
Invested
$346.5
Value
$350
PnL
+$3.5
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.18
Value
$34.17
PnL
-$2.01
Record
55%
248-199 (447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.