Florida State vs. Pittsburgh

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pittsburgh (13%) · Pittsburgh at 62¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 14

Florida State39¢Pittsburgh61¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Pittsburgh

Consensus Traders

Pittsburgh 13%

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

-$3.8

Research grade

NeutralPittsburgh at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pittsburgh

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Florida State39%

Pittsburgh62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pittsburgh1 trader

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares22,936

Combined PnL-$114.68

Florida State7 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares21,965

Combined PnL+$110.88

Pittsburgh — 13%Florida State — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Pittsburgh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperPittsburgh 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFlorida State 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedFlorida State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Florida State 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Pittsburghavg 62¢	$14.2K	$14.1K	-$114.68	49% 263-278 (541)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Florida Stateavg 38¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$56.02	48% 21-23 (44)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Florida Stateavg 38¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$21.17	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
VeryLucky888CTR	Florida Stateavg 38¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$16.06	52% 761-712 (1473)
38 38791873984189CTR	Florida Stateavg 38¢	$919.22	$931.32	+$12.1	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
HI hi774cCTR	Florida Stateavg 38¢	$377.54	$382.51	+$4.97	19% 126-532 (658)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Florida Stateavg 38¢	$34.17	$34.62	+$0.45	53% 933-821 (1754)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Florida Stateavg 38¢	$9.5	$9.63	+$0.13	39% 1064-1647 (2711)

Pwaddler

Pittsburgh

Invested

$14,220.17

Value

$14.1K

PnL

-$114.68

Record

49%

263-278 (541)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Florida State

Invested

$4,257.52

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$56.02

Record

48%

21-23 (44)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Florida State

Invested

$1,608.57

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$21.17

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

VeryLucky888CTR

Florida State

Invested

$1,294.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$16.06

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

38791873984189CTR

Florida State

Invested

$919.22

Value

$931.32

PnL

+$12.1

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

hi774cCTR

Florida State

Invested

$377.54

Value

$382.51

PnL

+$4.97

Record

19%

126-532 (658)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Florida State

Invested

$34.17

Value

$34.62

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Florida State

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

39%

1064-1647 (2711)

Research grade

NeutralPittsburgh at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pittsburgh

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Pittsburgh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperPittsburgh 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFlorida State 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedFlorida State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Florida State 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pittsburgh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.