Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bulgaria vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$17.47

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 47.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,047

Combined PnL-$11.56

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,897

Combined PnL+$29.03

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 53¢	$973.37	$973.37	+$0	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 46¢	$696.34	$711.48	+$15.14	34% 735-1404 (2139)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 54¢	$482.03	$473.11	-$8.93	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 47¢	$431.99	$436.56	+$4.56	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 47¢	$399.5	$399.5	+$0	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 45.4¢	$253.66	$262.43	+$8.76	36% 761-1361 (2122)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 54¢	$81	$79.5	-$1.5	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$56.92	$57.53	+$0.61	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 53¢	$57.77	$57.23	-$0.55	52% 471-427 (898)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 54¢	$31.86	$31.27	-$0.59	56% 307-245 (552)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$1.9	$1.86	-$0.04	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$973.37

Value

$973.37

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$696.34

Value

$711.48

PnL

+$15.14

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$482.03

Value

$473.11

PnL

-$8.93

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$431.99

Value

$436.56

PnL

+$4.56

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$399.5

Value

$399.5

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$253.66

Value

$262.43

PnL

+$8.76

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$81

Value

$79.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.92

Value

$57.53

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$57.77

Value

$57.23

PnL

-$0.55

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.86

Value

$31.27

PnL

-$0.59

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.