Spread: Knicks (-8.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (50%) · Pacers at 51¢ · $59K held · ends Nov 14

Knicks50¢Pacers50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 50%

Total Value

$58.9K

Combined PnL

$471.84

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 50.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks50%

Pacers51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers7 traders

Total Value$31.8K

Total Shares62,298

Combined PnL-$609.82

Knicks7 traders

Total Value$27.1K

Total Shares54,238

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Pacers — 50%Knicks — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Knicks) and the top 1000 (13 on Pacers) disagree here.

ctrKnicks 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Pacersavg 52¢	$31.2K	$30.6K	-$600	53% 535-466 (1001)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Knicksavg 48¢	$25.3K	$26.3K	+$1.1K	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
PI PIPIZIN	Pacersavg 51¢	$900	$891.18	-$8.82	7% 22-291 (313)
nehcnehcCTR	Knicksavg 49¢	$356.69	$360.33	+$3.64	34% 43-83 (126)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Knicksavg 48¢	$323.55	$337.03	+$13.48	2% 9-382 (391)
38 38791873984189	Pacersavg 50.7¢	$396.1	$153.33	-$0.47	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
FO forecastication4<$100	Pacersavg 50¢	$60.5	$60.5	+$0	31% 134-299 (433)
VeryLucky888CTR	Knicksavg 48¢	$240	$46.99	+$9.53	53% 1030-921 (1951)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pacersavg 51.3¢	$63.52	$45.5	-$0.68	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
0xheavy888<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$19.8	$20.2	+$0.4	53% 388-339 (727)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Knicksavg 48¢	$18.96	$19.75	+$0.79	49% 611-642 (1253)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Knicksavg 48¢	$6.64	$6.92	+$0.28	35% 749-1385 (2134)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Knicksavg 46.2¢	$5.16	$5.58	+$0.42	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pacersavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.55	-$0.25	40% 584-893 (1477)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Pacers

Invested

$31,199.99

Value

$30.6K

PnL

-$600

Record

53%

535-466 (1001)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Knicks

Invested

$25,284.7

Value

$26.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

PIPIZIN

Pacers

Invested

$900

Value

$891.18

PnL

-$8.82

Record

22-291 (313)

nehcnehcCTR

Knicks

Invested

$356.69

Value

$360.33

PnL

+$3.64

Record

34%

43-83 (126)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Knicks

Invested

$323.55

Value

$337.03

PnL

+$13.48

Record

9-382 (391)

38791873984189

Pacers

Invested

$396.1

Value

$153.33

PnL

-$0.47

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

forecastication4<$100

Pacers

Invested

$60.5

Value

$60.5

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

134-299 (433)

VeryLucky888CTR

Knicks

Invested

$240

Value

$46.99

PnL

+$9.53

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

Pan9X<$100

Pacers

Invested

$63.52

Value

$45.5

PnL

-$0.68

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

0xheavy888<$100

Pacers

Invested

$19.8

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$18.96

Value

$19.75

PnL

+$0.79

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$6.64

Value

$6.92

PnL

+$0.28

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$0.42

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.25

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Knicks) and the top 1000 (13 on Pacers) disagree here.

ctrKnicks 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.