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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HomeRunHazard | MegaMan-.- | nigiri99 | Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 53% (471–414, n=885) | 54% (19–16, n=35) | 55% (430–355, n=785) | 58% (11–8, n=19) |
| Consensus PnL | $358K | $2.4K | $344K | $386K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #9 | PM monthly #137 | PM monthly #128 | was PM monthly #70 |
| Sides with the consensus | 62% (146 of 234 open) | 100% (3 of 3 open) | 56% (101 of 180 open) | 0% (0 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 224 at avg 53¢, ROI +48% | 100% of 23 at avg 56¢, ROI +44% | 71% of 605 at avg 54¢, ROI +6% | 92% of 12 at avg 46¢, ROI +49% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 100% of 3) | 4% (won 100% of 1) | 13% (won 40% of 81) | 8% (won 0% of 1) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 31% (won 100% of 70) | 26% (won 100% of 6) | 24% (won 62% of 144) | 58% (won 100% of 7) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 60% (won 100% of 135) | 57% (won 100% of 13) | 43% (won 74% of 261) | 33% (won 100% of 4) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 7% (won 100% of 16) | 13% (won 100% of 3) | 20% (won 98% of 119) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
45 on the same side, 49 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HomeRunHazard | MegaMan-.- | nigiri99 | Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington vs. Michigan State opposite sides · consensus Washington | Michigan State $24K | — | Washington $90K | — |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner opposite sides · consensus Bilibili Gaming | — | Bilibili Gaming $23K | — | Gen.G $6.2K |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies | Grizzlies $12K | — | Nets $5.2K | — |
| Arizona State vs. UCF: O/U 45.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Over $212 | — | Under $13K | — |
| San Jose State vs. Air Force: O/U 49.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $2.6K | — | Over $6.0K | — |
| Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State: O/U 55.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $221 | — | Over $8.4K | — |
| Spread: South Carolina (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Arkansas | South Carolina $6.5K | — | Arkansas $726 | — |
| Spread: Tennessee (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Texas A&M | Tennessee $6.1K | — | Texas A&M $596 | — |
| Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $5.8K | — | Over $748 | — |
| Spread: Virginia Tech (-16.5) opposite sides · consensus Stanford | Virginia Tech $1.5K | — | Stanford $4.4K | — |
| Nuggets vs. Pelicans opposite sides · consensus Nuggets | Nuggets $4.7K | — | Pelicans $1.3K | — |
| San Jose State vs. Air Force: O/U 47.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $3.9K | — | Over $1.8K | — |
| Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Over $4.4K | — | Under $1.1K | — |
| Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State opposite sides · consensus Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern $5.0K | — | Georgia State $544 | — |
| Colorado State vs. Washington State: O/U 63.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Over $1.5K | — | Under $3.8K | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Heat | Pistons $106 | — | Heat $5.1K | — |
| Utah State vs. San Diego State: O/U 41.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $4.4K | — | Under $365 | — |
| Boston College vs. Notre Dame: O/U 51.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $3.2K | — | Over $1.4K | — |
| California vs. Virginia: O/U 47.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $4.4K | — | Over $1 | — |
| Missouri vs. Georgia: O/U 47.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $2.3K | — | Over $2.1K | — |
| Fresno State vs. Texas State: O/U 59.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $3.5K | — | Under $118 | — |
| Stanford vs. Virginia Tech opposite sides · consensus Virginia Tech | Stanford $831 | — | Virginia Tech $2.8K | — |
| Spread: Indiana (-8.5) opposite sides · consensus Indiana | Indiana $2.8K | — | USC $2 | — |
| Missouri vs. Georgia: O/U 49.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $1.4K | — | Over $1.2K | — |
| Spread: Wyoming (-8.5) opposite sides · consensus UTEP | UTEP $1.9K | — | Wyoming $656 | — |
| North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i: O/U 39.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $2.2K | — | Over $262 | — |
| Portland State Vikings vs. San Francisco Dons opposite sides · consensus San Francisco Dons | San Francisco Dons $1.0K | — | Portland State Vikings $1.2K | — |
| Spread: Wyoming (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus UTEP | UTEP $1.8K | — | Wyoming $403 | — |
| Islanders vs. Ducks opposite sides · consensus Islanders | Ducks $1.8K | — | Islanders $218 | — |
| Arizona State vs. UCF opposite sides · consensus UCF | Arizona State $1.8K | — | UCF $187 | — |
| Spread: North Dakota State (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Hawai'i | Hawai'i $1.4K | — | North Dakota State $85 | — |
| Utah State vs. San Diego State: O/U 43.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $524 | — | Under $931 | — |
| Spread: Virginia Tech (-15.5) opposite sides · consensus Stanford | Virginia Tech $522 | — | Stanford $877 | — |
| South Carolina vs. Arkansas: O/U 51.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $572 | — | Under $605 | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Pistons | Pistons $252 | — | Heat $782 | — |
| Spread: Auburn (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Mississippi State | Mississippi State $411 | — | Auburn $377 | — |
| Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $667 | — | Over $76 | — |
| Brown Bears vs. Siena Saints opposite sides · consensus Siena Saints | Siena Saints $520 | — | Brown Bears $222 | — |
| Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Northern Kentucky Norse opposite sides · consensus Central Michigan Chippewas | Central Michigan Chippewas $600 | — | Northern Kentucky Norse $125 | — |
| Spread: Indiana (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus USC | Indiana $5 | — | USC $620 | — |
| Spread: Georgia Southern (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Georgia State | Georgia Southern $57 | — | Georgia State $531 | — |
| Spread: Air Force (-12.5) opposite sides · consensus Air Force | San Jose State $251 | — | Air Force $318 | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Heat | Pistons $208 | — | Heat $332 | — |
| Panthers vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $292 | — | Under $17 | — |
| South Carolina vs. Arkansas opposite sides · consensus Arkansas | South Carolina $258 | — | Arkansas $12 | — |
| Spread: Georgia Southern (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Georgia State | Georgia Southern $2 | — | Georgia State $220 | — |
| Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty opposite sides · consensus Liberty | Liberty $163 | — | Middle Tennessee $36 | — |
| Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $150 | — | Over $13 | — |
| Jets vs. Blackhawks opposite sides · consensus Blackhawks | Blackhawks $129 | — | Jets $7 | — |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner same side · consensus Gen.G | — | Gen.G $45K | Gen.G $3.8K | — |