Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Georgia State, while the market favors Georgia Southern (70%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Georgia Southern (-4.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia State (86%) · Georgia State at 31¢ · $327 held · ended Nov 14

Georgia Southern70¢Georgia State30¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia State

Consensus Traders

Georgia State 86%

Total Value

$326.72

Combined PnL

$81.27

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 30.5¢

-33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Southern 70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Southern70%

Georgia State31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia State6 traders

Total Value$321.98

Total Shares526

Combined PnL+$81.09

Georgia Southern1 trader

Total Value$4.74

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$0.17

Georgia State — 86%Georgia Southern — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Georgia State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGeorgia State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGeorgia State 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Georgia State 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Georgia Stateavg 45¢	$183.15	$248.27	+$65.12	52% 573-538 (1111)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Georgia Stateavg 45¢	$40.73	$55.21	+$14.48	18% 32-147 (179)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Georgia Stateavg 61¢	$4.3	$5.3	+$1	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Georgia Stateavg 47¢	$4.05	$5.26	+$1.21	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Georgia Stateavg 66¢	$5.94	$5.18	-$0.77	47% 540-597 (1137)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Georgia Southernavg 53¢	$4.57	$4.74	+$0.17	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Georgia Stateavg 54¢	$2.71	$2.76	+$0.05	50% 3807-3776 (7583)

nigiri99CTR

Georgia State

Invested

$183.15

Value

$248.27

PnL

+$65.12

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$40.73

Value

$55.21

PnL

+$14.48

Record

18%

32-147 (179)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$4.3

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$1

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$4.05

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$1.21

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$0.77

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Georgia Southern

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.74

PnL

+$0.17

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Southern 70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Georgia State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGeorgia State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGeorgia State 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Georgia State 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.