California vs. Virginia: O/U 47.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 54¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$11.4K
$293.88
52.1¢ → 53.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51.4¢ | $4.2K | $4.4K | +$172.59 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 53¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$32.84 | 50% 2543-2505 (5048) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 47.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | +$30.45 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $1.8K | $997.12 | +$37.82 | 54% 1417-1228 (2645) |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $888.36 | $907.26 | +$18.9 | 22% 179-619 (798) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $66.3 | $67.6 | +$1.3 | 54% 286-244 (530) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $2.82 | $2.79 | -$0.03 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
Invested
$4,224.88
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$172.59
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$3,481.42
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$32.84
Record
50%
2543-2505 (5048)
Invested
$1,760.05
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$30.45
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,847.33
Value
$997.12
PnL
+$37.82
Record
54%
1417-1228 (2645)
Invested
$888.36
Value
$907.26
PnL
+$18.9
Record
22%
179-619 (798)
Invested
$66.3
Value
$67.6
PnL
+$1.3
Record
54%
286-244 (530)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.79
PnL
-$0.03
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.