Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Islanders, while the market favors Ducks (51%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Islanders vs. Ducks
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Islanders (25%) · Islanders at 50¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Islanders
8
Islanders 25%
$9.1K
$10.24
49¢ → 49.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralIslanders at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Ducks 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Islanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoroCTR | Islandersavg 49¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$48.71 | 38% 16-26 (42) |
RO roldy | Ducksavg 51¢ | $3.1K | $3.0K | -$30 | 37% 11-19 (30) |
 VeryLucky888 | Ducksavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$10 | 53% 1298-1131 (2429) |
 fyrskenCTR | Islandersavg 48¢ | $157.94 | $159.58 | +$1.65 | 52% 55-51 (106) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Ducksavg 51.4¢ | $70.86 | $68.33 | -$0.13 | 50% 1551-1563 (3114) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Ducksavg 51¢ | $36.52 | $36.5 | -$0.02 | 52% 1661-1516 (3177) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Ducksavg 52¢ | $4.16 | $4.12 | -$0.04 | 52% 557-514 (1071) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Ducksavg 50¢ | $2.52 | $2.6 | +$0.08 | 48% 3155-3450 (6605) |
Invested
$4,773.22
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$48.71
Record
38%
16-26 (42)
Invested
$3,060
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$30
Record
37%
11-19 (30)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,020
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
1298-1131 (2429)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$157.94
Value
$159.58
PnL
+$1.65
Record
52%
55-51 (106)
Invested
$70.86
Value
$68.33
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
1551-1563 (3114)
Invested
$36.52
Value
$36.5
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
1661-1516 (3177)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$4.16
Value
$4.12
PnL
-$0.04
Record
52%
557-514 (1071)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
3155-3450 (6605)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.