Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Southern (40%) · Georgia Southern at 68¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Georgia Southern
5
Georgia Southern 40%
$9.3K
-$5.91
67¢ → 67.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralGeorgia Southern at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Georgia Southern. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR | Georgia Stateavg 33¢ | $3.4K | $3.3K | -$50.98 | 43% 26-34 (60) |
IC ic4cream | Georgia Southernavg 67¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$24.35 | 6% 27-459 (486) |
 nigiri99 | Georgia Southernavg 67¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$20.2 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Georgia Stateavg 32¢ | $27.5 | $27.93 | +$0.43 | 53% 1186-1032 (2218) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Georgia Stateavg 32¢ | $5.44 | $5.53 | +$0.08 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
Invested
$3,364.39
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$50.98
Record
43%
26-34 (60)
Invested
$3,262.9
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$24.35
Record
6%
27-459 (486)
nigiri99Invested
$2,679.8
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$20.2
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$27.5
Value
$27.93
PnL
+$0.43
Record
53%
1186-1032 (2218)
Invested
$5.44
Value
$5.53
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.