Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Missouri vs. Georgia: O/U 47.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 47¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$121.75

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 46.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares8,136

Combined PnL-$114.03

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,317

Combined PnL-$7.73

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$98.83	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
nigiri99	Overavg 54¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$10.62	51% 568-535 (1103)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$23.07	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 46¢	$161	$166.25	+$5.25	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 46¢	$161	$166.25	+$5.25	37% 367-618 (985)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 48.3¢	$95.68	$93.06	-$2.62	54% 286-244 (530)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 50¢	$54	$56.7	+$2.7	47% 936-1037 (1973)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 53¢	$20.67	$20.87	+$0.2	45% 263-319 (582)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.54	$2.54	-$0	48% 3239-3552 (6791)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,441.64

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$98.83

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,171.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$10.62

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,136.46

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$23.07

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$161

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$161

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$95.68

Value

$93.06

PnL

-$2.62

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$54

Value

$56.7

PnL

+$2.7

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$20.67

Value

$20.87

PnL

+$0.2

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.54

Value

$2.54

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.