Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State: O/U 55.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$2.1K
-$1.56
51.7¢ → 50.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Overavg 52¢ | $860.08 | $843.54 | -$16.54 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $505.77 | $516.31 | +$10.54 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 51¢ | $279.16 | $276.42 | -$2.74 | 48% 3212-3512 (6724) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $264.26 | $266.96 | +$2.7 | 36% 930-1642 (2572) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $192.15 | $196.15 | +$4 | 47% 895-992 (1887) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $15.26 | $15.74 | +$0.48 | 49% 635-674 (1309) |
nigiri99Invested
$860.08
Value
$843.54
PnL
-$16.54
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$505.77
Value
$516.31
PnL
+$10.54
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$279.16
Value
$276.42
PnL
-$2.74
Record
48%
3212-3512 (6724)
Invested
$264.26
Value
$266.96
PnL
+$2.7
Record
36%
930-1642 (2572)
Invested
$192.15
Value
$196.15
PnL
+$4
Record
47%
895-992 (1887)
Invested
$15.26
Value
$15.74
PnL
+$0.48
Record
49%
635-674 (1309)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.