Spread: Indiana (-10.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold USC (20%) · USC at 56¢ · $867 held · ends Nov 14

Indiana44¢USC56¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

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Neutral

USC

Consensus Traders

USC 20%

Total Value

$866.83

Combined PnL

$6.53

Research grade

NeutralUSC at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

USC

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Indiana44%

USC56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

USC1 trader

Total Value$614.16

Total Shares1,087

Combined PnL+$4.37

Indiana4 traders

Total Value$252.67

Total Shares560

Combined PnL+$2.17

USC — 20%Indiana — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	USCavg 56.1¢	$609.79	$614.16	+$4.37	51% 568-535 (1103)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Indianaavg 44¢	$227.04	$229.62	+$2.58	48% 34-37 (71)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Indianaavg 46¢	$9.4	$9.12	-$0.28	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Indianaavg 46¢	$9.2	$8.9	-$0.3	47% 936-1036 (1972)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Indianaavg 43¢	$4.86	$5.03	+$0.17	56% 3687-2847 (6534)

nigiri99

USC

Invested

$609.79

Value

$614.16

PnL

+$4.37

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Indiana

Invested

$227.04

Value

$229.62

PnL

+$2.58

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$9.2

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$4.86

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.17

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Research grade

NeutralUSC at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

USC

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that USC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.