Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Liberty (50%) · Liberty at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Middle Tennessee13¢Liberty87¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liberty

Consensus Traders

Liberty 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$38.29

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 87.1¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiberty at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liberty

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Middle Tennessee13%

Liberty87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liberty6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,430

Combined PnL+$28.63

Middle Tennessee6 traders

Total Value$38.8

Total Shares562

Combined PnL+$9.67

Liberty — 50%Middle Tennessee — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Liberty. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Middle Tennessee) and the top 1000 (8 on Liberty) disagree here.

whaleMiddle Tennessee 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMiddle Tennessee 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiddle Tennessee 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liberty 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Libertyavg 93¢	$574.48	$590.23	+$15.75	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
SN SnakeBall	Libertyavg 93¢	$392.12	$401.96	+$9.83	47% 969-1095 (2064)
HO HomeRunHazard	Libertyavg 92¢	$172.04	$173.91	+$1.87	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
NO NotJump	Libertyavg 50¢	$105	$105	-$0	52% 883-823 (1706)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Libertyavg 96.2¢	$76.96	$77.92	+$0.96	65% 635-348 (983)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Libertyavg 89.6¢	$18.1	$18.31	+$0.21	56% 4072-3180 (7252)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 7¢	$19.6	$15.4	-$4.2	52% 573-538 (1111)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 7¢	$19.23	$12.81	+$15.96	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 7¢	$9.8	$7.7	-$2.1	45% 268-322 (590)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 7¢	$2.66	$2.66	+$0	46% 36-43 (79)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 7¢	$0.18	$0.18	-$0	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 2.2¢	$0.04	$0.05	+$0	38% 53-87 (140)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Liberty

Invested

$574.48

Value

$590.23

PnL

+$15.75

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

SnakeBall

Liberty

Invested

$392.12

Value

$401.96

PnL

+$9.83

Record

47%

969-1095 (2064)

HomeRunHazard

Liberty

Invested

$172.04

Value

$173.91

PnL

+$1.87

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

NotJump

Liberty

Invested

$105

Value

$105

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

suitcase6628<$100

Liberty

Invested

$76.96

Value

$77.92

PnL

+$0.96

Record

65%

635-348 (983)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Liberty

Invested

$18.1

Value

$18.31

PnL

+$0.21

Record

56%

4072-3180 (7252)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$19.6

Value

$15.4

PnL

-$4.2

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$19.23

Value

$12.81

PnL

+$15.96

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$9.8

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$2.1

Record

45%

268-322 (590)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

36-43 (79)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

0xfFFF6537CTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

53-87 (140)

Research grade

NeutralLiberty at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Liberty

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Liberty. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Middle Tennessee) and the top 1000 (8 on Liberty) disagree here.

whaleMiddle Tennessee 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMiddle Tennessee 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiddle Tennessee 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liberty 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liberty wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.6%

87.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.