Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Boston College vs. Notre Dame: O/U 51.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (73%) · Over at 39¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 73%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$224.87

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 38.5¢

-23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,697

Combined PnL+$112.64

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,677

Combined PnL-$337.5

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 48.8¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$108.38	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$257.74	52% 573-538 (1111)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 51.9¢	$553.03	$495.95	-$57.08	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
RN1CTR	Overavg 43.1¢	$255.02	$251.54	-$3.48	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 44¢	$220	$237.5	+$17.5	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 51¢	$204	$176	-$28	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 50¢	$175	$166.25	-$8.75	38% 395-632 (1027)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 51¢	$110.67	$113.93	+$3.26	54% 286-244 (530)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$25	$23.75	-$1.25	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 50¢	$20	$21	+$1	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$16.28	$17.58	+$1.29	50% 1601-1625 (3226)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,754.02

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$108.38

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$1,877.82

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$257.74

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$553.03

Value

$495.95

PnL

-$57.08

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$255.02

Value

$251.54

PnL

-$3.48

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$220

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$204

Value

$176

PnL

-$28

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$175

Value

$166.25

PnL

-$8.75

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$110.67

Value

$113.93

PnL

+$3.26

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25

Value

$23.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$21

PnL

+$1

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.28

Value

$17.58

PnL

+$1.29

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.