Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 51¢ · $892 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 56%
$891.64
$6.34
49.6¢ → 50.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Underavg 49¢ | $365.85 | $377.05 | +$11.2 | 37% 1030-1762 (2792) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 51¢ | $163.66 | $159.23 | -$4.43 | 48% 3273-3600 (6873) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51¢ | $148.92 | $147.46 | -$1.46 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
MA MadridTime | Underavg 49.7¢ | $124.18 | $126.25 | +$2.07 | 38% 1060-1756 (2816) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 51.3¢ | $38.5 | $37.13 | -$1.38 | 50% 1601-1625 (3226) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48.6¢ | $16.7 | $16.99 | +$0.29 | 55% 515-424 (939) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $13 | $12.87 | -$0.13 | 52% 573-538 (1111) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $12 | $12.12 | +$0.12 | 53% 1854-1648 (3502) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.55 | +$0.05 | 41% 705-1014 (1719) |
Invested
$365.85
Value
$377.05
PnL
+$11.2
Record
37%
1030-1762 (2792)
Invested
$163.66
Value
$159.23
PnL
-$4.43
Record
48%
3273-3600 (6873)
Invested
$148.92
Value
$147.46
PnL
-$1.46
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$124.18
Value
$126.25
PnL
+$2.07
Record
38%
1060-1756 (2816)
Invested
$38.5
Value
$37.13
PnL
-$1.38
Record
50%
1601-1625 (3226)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$16.7
Value
$16.99
PnL
+$0.29
Record
55%
515-424 (939)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$13
Value
$12.87
PnL
-$0.13
Record
52%
573-538 (1111)
Invested
$12
Value
$12.12
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
1854-1648 (3502)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.05
Record
41%
705-1014 (1719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.