LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (57%) · Gen.G at 57¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 15

Bilibili Gaming43¢Gen.G57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.8K

Combined PnL

-$57.42

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming43%

Gen.G57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G8 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares34,315

Combined PnL-$52.25

Bilibili Gaming6 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares17,703

Combined PnL-$5.17

Gen.G — 57%Bilibili Gaming — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBilibili Gaming 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
zb8	Gen.Gavg 57¢	$10.3K	$10.3K	+$89.92	56% 444-348 (792)
lllllllllooooCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 43¢	$6.5K	$6.4K	-$74.5	12% 13-97 (110)
dodsterbot	Gen.Gavg 57¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$46.6	45% 511-620 (1131)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Gen.Gavg 60.2¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$184.77	—
SB sbimbg	Gen.Gavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$0	— 11-4 (15)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 41.2¢	$932.68	$995.69	+$63.01	0% 0-27 (27)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 46.4¢	$926.65	$604.62	+$6.73	52% 852-801 (1653)
└ Gen.G leg	Gen.Gavg 50.3¢	$292.99	$335.13	+$58.97
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 46.4¢	$294.04	$269.48	-$52.24
BI BillBenter2026	Gen.Gavg 58¢	$199.52	$197.8	-$1.72	30% 246-583 (829)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 42.3¢	$91.41	$95.07	+$3.66	56% 4066-3175 (7241)
SU suntori<$100	Gen.Gavg 58¢	$47.61	$45.97	-$1.64	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 41.7¢	$82.72	$45.59	+$2.04	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
38 38791873984189	Gen.Gavg 58.2¢	$125.85	$13.4	-$0.61	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 42¢	$10.8	$11.32	+$0.51	50% 426-434 (860)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.2	+$0.1	41% 702-1012 (1714)
BR brobrobrobrobro<$100	Gen.Gavg 57¢	$1.33	$1.3	-$0.02	26% 11-31 (42)

zb8

Gen.G

Invested

$10,251.23

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$89.92

Record

56%

444-348 (792)

lllllllllooooCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$6,492.05

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$74.5

Record

12%

13-97 (110)

dodsterbot

Gen.G

Invested

$5,312.09

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$46.6

Record

45%

511-620 (1131)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Gen.G

Invested

$2,670.58

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$184.77

Record

—

sbimbg

Gen.G

Invested

$1,189.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

—

11-4 (15)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$932.68

Value

$995.69

PnL

+$63.01

Record

0-27 (27)

NotJumpARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$926.65

Value

$604.62

PnL

+$6.73

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

Both legs:

Gen.G$292.9950.3¢+$58.97

Bilibili Gaming$294.0446.4¢-$52.24

BillBenter2026

Gen.G

Invested

$199.52

Value

$197.8

PnL

-$1.72

Record

30%

246-583 (829)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$91.41

Value

$95.07

PnL

+$3.66

Record

56%

4066-3175 (7241)

suntori<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$47.61

Value

$45.97

PnL

-$1.64

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$82.72

Value

$45.59

PnL

+$2.04

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

38791873984189

Gen.G

Invested

$125.85

Value

$13.4

PnL

-$0.61

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Anon455CTR<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$10.8

Value

$11.32

PnL

+$0.51

Record

50%

426-434 (860)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

41%

702-1012 (1714)

brobrobrobrobro<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.02

Record

26%

11-31 (42)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBilibili Gaming 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.