Missouri vs. Georgia: O/U 49.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 53¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$90.62

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 52.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares11,921

Combined PnL-$91.5

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,758

Combined PnL+$0.88

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 55¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	-$106.12	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 47¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.34	51% 568-535 (1103)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.45	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 53.3¢	$933.65	$926.13	+$4.28	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 53¢	$674.58	$681.06	+$6.48	47% 936-1036 (1972)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 53¢	$424	$428	+$4	25% 350-1027 (1377)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 54.2¢	$157.71	$155.69	-$2.03	54% 286-244 (530)
NM NM-P	Underavg 53¢	$105.51	$107.11	+$1.6	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 53¢	$94.87	$95.77	+$0.89	48% 301-330 (631)
GC GC-P<$100	Underavg 53¢	$66.38	$67.01	+$0.63	37% 367-618 (985)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 55¢	$45.1	$43.87	-$1.23	64% 1915-1061 (2976)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$4,050.6

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$106.12

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$1,159.49

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.34

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$1,076.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.45

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$933.65

Value

$926.13

PnL

+$4.28

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$674.58

Value

$681.06

PnL

+$6.48

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$424

Value

$428

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

350-1027 (1377)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$157.71

Value

$155.69

PnL

-$2.03

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$105.51

Value

$107.11

PnL

+$1.6

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$94.87

Value

$95.77

PnL

+$0.89

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

GC-P<$100

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$67.01

PnL

+$0.63

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$45.1

Value

$43.87

PnL

-$1.23

Record

64%

1915-1061 (2976)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.