Spread: North Dakota State (-7.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hawai'i (86%) · Hawai'i at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

North Dakota State46¢Hawai'i54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hawai'i

Consensus Traders

Hawai'i 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$53.9

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 54.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHawai'i at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawai'i

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

North Dakota State46%

Hawai'i55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawai'i6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,189

Combined PnL-$52.02

North Dakota State1 trader

Total Value$84.6

Total Shares188

Combined PnL-$1.88

Hawai'i — 86%North Dakota State — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Hawai'i. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHawai'i 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawai'i 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawai'i 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawai'iavg 56¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$25.93	56% 3699-2861 (6560)
VeryLucky888	Hawai'iavg 56¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$18.34	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Hawai'iavg 56¢	$248.46	$244.58	-$3.87	39% 402-638 (1040)
└ Hawai'i leg	Hawai'iavg 56¢	$167.96	$164.96	-$3
└ North Dakota State leg	North Dakota Stateavg 46¢	$80.5	$79.63	-$0.88
NM NM-P	Hawai'iavg 56¢	$200.69	$197.13	-$3.55	59% 3805-2621 (6426)
38 38791873984189	Hawai'iavg 56¢	$258.67	$187.38	-$3.29	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
nigiri99CTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 46¢	$86.48	$84.6	-$1.88	51% 579-546 (1125)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Hawai'iavg 56¢	$38.08	$37.4	-$0.68	54% 295-256 (551)
GH ghorrock<$100	Hawai'iavg 56¢	$13.17	$12.94	-$0.24	53% 1867-1658 (3525)

HomeRunHazard

Hawai'i

Invested

$1,451.83

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$25.93

Record

56%

3699-2861 (6560)

VeryLucky888

Hawai'i

Invested

$1,027.04

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$18.34

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

GC-PARB<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$248.46

Value

$244.58

PnL

-$3.87

Record

39%

402-638 (1040)

Both legs:

Hawai'i$167.9656¢-$3

North Dakota State$80.546¢-$0.88

NM-P

Hawai'i

Invested

$200.69

Value

$197.13

PnL

-$3.55

Record

59%

3805-2621 (6426)

38791873984189

Hawai'i

Invested

$258.67

Value

$187.38

PnL

-$3.29

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

nigiri99CTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$86.48

Value

$84.6

PnL

-$1.88

Record

51%

579-546 (1125)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$38.08

Value

$37.4

PnL

-$0.68

Record

54%

295-256 (551)

ghorrock<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$13.17

Value

$12.94

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

Research grade

NeutralHawai'i at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hawai'i

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Hawai'i. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHawai'i 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawai'i 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawai'i 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawai'i wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.