Jets vs. Blackhawks

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (38%) · Jets at 60¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 14

Jets60¢Blackhawks40¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 38%

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

$17

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 59.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jets60%

Blackhawks41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets3 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares23,747

Combined PnL+$5.89

Blackhawks5 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares22,350

Combined PnL+$11.11

Jets — 38%Blackhawks — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459	Jetsavg 59.5¢	$14.0K	$14.0K	+$5.89	— 12-4 (16)
BA BabooouCTR	Blackhawksavg 41¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$40	65% 15-8 (23)
RO roldyCTR	Blackhawksavg 40¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$30	38% 11-18 (29)
RO royalestakeCTR	Blackhawksavg 41¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0	8% 16-191 (207)
CO cocococococoCTR	Blackhawksavg 40¢	$888.8	$899.91	+$11.11	27% 14-38 (52)
VeryLucky888CTR	Blackhawksavg 40¢	$800	$810	+$10	53% 1284-1125 (2409)
IC ic4cream<$100	Jetsavg 59¢	$74.93	$74.93	-$0	6% 30-460 (490)
nigiri99<$100	Jetsavg 59¢	$28.91	$28.91	+$0	52% 548-503 (1051)

0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459

Jets

Invested

$14,019.07

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$5.89

Record

—

12-4 (16)

BabooouCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$3,280

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$40

Record

65%

15-8 (23)

roldyCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$30

Record

38%

11-18 (29)

royalestakeCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$1,692.6

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

16-191 (207)

cocococococoCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$888.8

Value

$899.91

PnL

+$11.11

Record

27%

14-38 (52)

VeryLucky888CTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$800

Value

$810

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

1284-1125 (2409)

ic4cream<$100

Jets

Invested

$74.93

Value

$74.93

PnL

-$0

Record

30-460 (490)

nigiri99<$100

Jets

Invested

$28.91

Value

$28.91

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

548-503 (1051)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jets

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.