Spread: Georgia Southern (-5.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia State (30%) · Georgia State at 73¢ · $64K held · ended Nov 14

Georgia Southern28¢Georgia State72¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia State

Consensus Traders

Georgia State 30%

Total Value

$63.6K

Combined PnL

$11.7K

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 72.5¢

+45% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Southern28%

Georgia State73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia State3 traders

Total Value$36.8K

Total Shares51,870

Combined PnL+$10.9K

Georgia Southern7 traders

Total Value$26.8K

Total Shares51,954

Combined PnL+$766.63

Georgia State — 30%Georgia Southern — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Georgia Stateavg 50¢	$24.6K	$35.1K	+$10.6K	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
DO Donkey14CTR	Georgia Southernavg 50¢	$20.0K	$20.6K	+$600	32% 7-15 (22)
BO Bozos14CTR	Georgia Southernavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$150	6% 9-132 (141)
nigiri99	Georgia Stateavg 50.5¢	$850.57	$1.2K	+$354.21	51% 568-535 (1103)
MA MadridTime	Georgia Stateavg 48¢	$503.04	$508.28	+$5.24	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
38 38791873984189CTR	Georgia Southernavg 52¢	$511.16	$506.25	-$4.92	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Georgia Southernavg 49¢	$392.97	$413.02	+$20.05	44% 44-57 (101)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Georgia Southernavg 50.1¢	$57.13	$58.7	+$1.57	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Georgia Southernavg 52¢	$23.4	$23.18	-$0.23	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Georgia Southernavg 50¢	$5.04	$5.19	+$0.15	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Georgia State

Invested

$24,568.53

Value

$35.1K

PnL

+$10.6K

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

Donkey14CTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$20,000

Value

$20.6K

PnL

+$600

Record

32%

7-15 (22)

Bozos14CTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$150

Record

9-132 (141)

nigiri99

Georgia State

Invested

$850.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$354.21

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

MadridTime

Georgia State

Invested

$503.04

Value

$508.28

PnL

+$5.24

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

38791873984189CTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$511.16

Value

$506.25

PnL

-$4.92

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$392.97

Value

$413.02

PnL

+$20.05

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Georgia Southern

Invested

$57.13

Value

$58.7

PnL

+$1.57

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Georgia Southern

Invested

$23.4

Value

$23.18

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Georgia Southern

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.19

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.