Arizona State vs. UCF

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold UCF (33%) · UCF at 61¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Arizona State40¢UCF60¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCF

Consensus Traders

UCF 33%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$65.35

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 60.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCF at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCF

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Arizona State40%

UCF61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCF3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,528

Combined PnL+$67.5

Arizona State6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,955

Combined PnL-$2.14

UCF — 33%Arizona State — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on UCF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona State 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Arizona State 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	UCFavg 59¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$55.29	59% 502-347 (849)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Arizona Stateavg 39¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
CR Crazyboy77	UCFavg 59¢	$472	$484	+$12	13% 15-103 (118)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Arizona Stateavg 40¢	$115.63	$112.71	-$2.92	47% 936-1037 (1973)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Arizona Stateavg 39¢	$31.91	$32.32	+$0.41	54% 286-244 (530)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Arizona Stateavg 39¢	$25.35	$25.68	+$0.32	25% 350-1027 (1377)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	UCFavg 60¢	$25	$25.21	+$0.21	35% 269-489 (758)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Arizona Stateavg 39¢	$6.21	$6.29	+$0.08	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Arizona Stateavg 40¢	$1.48	$1.45	-$0.04	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

UCF

Invested

$2,174.73

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$55.29

Record

59%

502-347 (849)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Arizona State

Invested

$1,755.02

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Crazyboy77

UCF

Invested

$472

Value

$484

PnL

+$12

Record

13%

15-103 (118)

SnakeBallCTR

Arizona State

Invested

$115.63

Value

$112.71

PnL

-$2.92

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$31.91

Value

$32.32

PnL

+$0.41

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$25.35

Value

$25.68

PnL

+$0.32

Record

25%

350-1027 (1377)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

UCF

Invested

$25

Value

$25.21

PnL

+$0.21

Record

35%

269-489 (758)

sentrioCTR<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$6.21

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$0.08

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Arizona State

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

NeutralUCF at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UCF

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on UCF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona State 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Arizona State 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.