Spread: Air Force (-12.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Air Force (22%) · Air Force at 55¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 15

Air Force55¢San Jose State45¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Air Force

Consensus Traders

Air Force 22%

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$19.68

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 54.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralAir Force at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Air Force

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Air Force55%

San Jose State46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Air Force2 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares15,396

Combined PnL-$230.93

San Jose State7 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares18,174

Combined PnL+$250.62

Air Force — 22%San Jose State — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-78 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Air Force. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Jose State 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000San Jose State 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FeedTheBigBird	Air Forceavg 56¢	$6.6K	$6.4K	-$177.25	63% 26-15 (41)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	San Jose Stateavg 44.1¢	$4.4K	$4.6K	+$141.09	48% 34-37 (71)
HI hi774cCTR	San Jose Stateavg 44¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$103.23	22% 179-618 (797)
LI lightotunnel35	Air Forceavg 56¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$53.68	20% 15-59 (74)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	San Jose Stateavg 46.2¢	$258.04	$254.09	-$3.95	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
GC GC-PCTR	San Jose Stateavg 44¢	$154	$159.25	+$5.25	37% 353-603 (956)
NM NM-PCTR	San Jose Stateavg 44¢	$154	$159.25	+$5.25	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 46.9¢	$11.02	$10.7	-$0.32	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 44¢	$1.92	$1.98	+$0.07	54% 286-244 (530)

FeedTheBigBird

Air Force

Invested

$6,617.44

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$177.25

Record

63%

26-15 (41)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

San Jose State

Invested

$4,411.63

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$141.09

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

hi774cCTR

San Jose State

Invested

$3,028.12

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$103.23

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

lightotunnel35

Air Force

Invested

$2,004.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$53.68

Record

20%

15-59 (74)

HomeRunHazardCTR

San Jose State

Invested

$258.04

Value

$254.09

PnL

-$3.95

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

GC-PCTR

San Jose State

Invested

$154

Value

$159.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

NM-PCTR

San Jose State

Invested

$154

Value

$159.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

ghorrockCTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$11.02

Value

$10.7

PnL

-$0.32

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Research grade

NeutralAir Force at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Air Force

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-78 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Air Force. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Jose State 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000San Jose State 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Air Force wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.