Fresno State vs. Texas State: O/U 59.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 52¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 14

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 78%

Total Value

$51.9K

Combined PnL

-$10.52

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 51.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$24.9K

Total Shares51,350

Combined PnL-$764.86

Over7 traders

Total Value$27.0K

Total Shares52,450

Combined PnL+$754.35

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 50¢	$25.4K	$24.6K	-$762.17	49% 635-674 (1309)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 50¢	$22.0K	$22.7K	+$660	50% 2529-2490 (5019)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$70.88	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 49¢	$264.26	$261.56	-$2.7	36% 953-1669 (2622)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 49¢	$241.08	$250.92	+$9.84	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 49¢	$219.72	$228.68	+$8.97	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Overavg 50¢	$90.78	$93.5	+$2.72	43% 182-242 (424)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 50¢	$73.48	$74.95	+$1.47	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 51¢	$47.43	$47.9	+$0.46	48% 288-310 (598)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$25,405.57

Value

$24.6K

PnL

-$762.17

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$22,000

Value

$22.7K

PnL

+$660

Record

50%

2529-2490 (5019)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$3,544

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$70.88

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$264.26

Value

$261.56

PnL

-$2.7

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$241.08

Value

$250.92

PnL

+$9.84

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$219.72

Value

$228.68

PnL

+$8.97

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

NatoAlfista<$100

Over

Invested

$90.78

Value

$93.5

PnL

+$2.72

Record

43%

182-242 (424)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$73.48

Value

$74.95

PnL

+$1.47

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$47.43

Value

$47.9

PnL

+$0.46

Record

48%

288-310 (598)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.