LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (57%) · Gen.G at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Bilibili Gaming43¢Gen.G57¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 57%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$33.65

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 57¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming43%

Gen.G57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,095

Combined PnL-$45.51

Bilibili Gaming3 traders

Total Value$522.15

Total Shares1,214

Combined PnL+$11.86

Gen.G — 57%Bilibili Gaming — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpGen.G 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Gen.Gavg 58¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$46.23	—
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 42¢	$477.65	$489.03	+$11.37	0% 0-27 (27)
PL pltrkr111	Gen.Gavg 57¢	$213.6	$213.6	+$0	1% 6-508 (514)
0X 0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927<$100	Gen.Gavg 56¢	$40.42	$41.14	+$0.72	55% 233-190 (423)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 42¢	$20.38	$20.86	+$0.49	51% 197-186 (383)
38 38791873984189<$100	Gen.Gavg 57¢	$14.25	$14.25	-$0	48% 603-645 (1248)
realbengvirCTR<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 43¢	$12.26	$12.26	-$0	— 0-15 (15)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Gen.G

Invested

$2,681.34

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$46.23

Record

—

GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$477.65

Value

$489.03

PnL

+$11.37

Record

0-27 (27)

pltrkr111

Gen.G

Invested

$213.6

Value

$213.6

PnL

+$0

Record

6-508 (514)

0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$40.42

Value

$41.14

PnL

+$0.72

Record

55%

233-190 (423)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$20.38

Value

$20.86

PnL

+$0.49

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

38791873984189<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$14.25

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

realbengvirCTR<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$12.26

Value

$12.26

PnL

-$0

Record

—

0-15 (15)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpGen.G 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.