Spread: Tennessee (-2.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Texas A&M (86%) · Texas A&M at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Texas A&M
7
Texas A&M 86%
$2.3K
$39.73
50¢ → 54.5¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralTexas A&M at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Texas A&M. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Tennesseeavg 49.5¢ | $999.62 | $989.4 | -$10.22 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
 0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492 | Texas A&Mavg 50¢ | $498 | $517.92 | +$19.92 | 0% 0-325 (325) |
 nigiri99 | Texas A&Mavg 51¢ | $490.62 | $500.24 | +$9.62 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
SN SnakeBall | Texas A&Mavg 46¢ | $134.1 | $151.59 | +$17.49 | 48% 855-936 (1791) |
BA bands1<$100 | Texas A&Mavg 52¢ | $83.05 | $83.05 | +$0 | 51% 347-336 (683) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Texas A&Mavg 48¢ | $20.31 | $22 | +$1.69 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Texas A&Mavg 46¢ | $9.42 | $10.65 | +$1.23 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
Invested
$999.62
Value
$989.4
PnL
-$10.22
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492Invested
$498
Value
$517.92
PnL
+$19.92
Record
0%
0-325 (325)
nigiri99Invested
$490.62
Value
$500.24
PnL
+$9.62
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$134.1
Value
$151.59
PnL
+$17.49
Record
48%
855-936 (1791)
Invested
$83.05
Value
$83.05
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
347-336 (683)
Invested
$20.31
Value
$22
PnL
+$1.69
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
Invested
$9.42
Value
$10.65
PnL
+$1.23
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.