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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
CyclewinFlaznorpkeeptheblueflagflyinghighThunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl
Record (consensus markets)no settled market74% (1443–503, n=1946)46% (323–386, n=709)40% (4–6, n=10)
Consensus PnL—$298K$250K$365K
Tracked asPM monthly #972PM monthly #45PM monthly #26was PM monthly #70
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position60% (170 of 283 open)63% (67 of 107 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—College Basketball −3 pts, n=123——
Settled positions, side won—48% of 490 at avg 48¢, ROI 0%100% of 228 at avg 51¢, ROI +47%80% of 5 at avg 39¢, ROI +62%
Entries under 30¢—32% (won 5% of 159)7% (won 100% of 15)20% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 30–50¢—24% (won 43% of 119)39% (won 100% of 88)60% (won 100% of 3)
Entries 50–70¢—14% (won 61% of 70)47% (won 100% of 108)20% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 70¢ and up—29% (won 95% of 142)7% (won 100% of 17)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

35 on the same side, 29 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketCyclewinFlaznorpkeeptheblueflagflyinghighThunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Timberwolves
—Timberwolves $3.8KMavericks $14K—
Spread: Suns (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hornets
—Suns $634Hornets $16K—
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Capitals
—Devils $69Capitals $14K—
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $77Over $7.6K—
Spread: Pistons (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Wizards
—Wizards $2.9KPistons $3.1K—
Spread: 76ers (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
—Raptors $1276ers $5.8K—
Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $597Over $4.9K—
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)
opposite sides · consensus Wizards
—Pistons $769Wizards $3.5K—
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $759Under $3.1K—
Wild vs. Maple Leafs
opposite sides · consensus Wild
—Wild $1.8KMaple Leafs $715—
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets
opposite sides · consensus Lightning
—Lightning $1.4KBlue Jackets $719—
Spread: 76ers (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
—Raptors $4676ers $1.9K—
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $1.1KUnder $115—
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $818Over $173—
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)
opposite sides · consensus Mavericks
—Timberwolves $946Mavericks $31—
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $670Over $4—
Spread: 76ers (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
—Raptors $26376ers $204—
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Senators
—Senators $316Avalanche $9—
Sabres vs. Blackhawks
opposite sides · consensus Sabres
—Sabres $143Blackhawks $164—
Matsuyama: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Jay Dylan Friend
opposite sides · consensus Jay Dylan Friend
—Yu-Hsiou Hsu $230Jay Dylan Friend $65—
Hornets vs. Suns: O/U 215.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $78Over $198—
Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $79Over $128—
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $95Over $111—
Spread: Senators (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Senators
—Avalanche $23Senators $149—
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $64Over $44—
Blues vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $7Over $62—
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jets
—Stars $16Jets $13—
W75 Brisbane: Joanna Garland vs Olivia Gadecki
opposite sides · consensus Olivia Gadecki
—Joanna Garland $5Olivia Gadecki $18—
Spread: Suns (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hornets
—Hornets $12Suns $5—
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)
same side · consensus Timberwolves
—Timberwolves $5.7KTimberwolves $53K—
Spread: 76ers (-8.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
—76ers $11K76ers $40K—
Pistons vs. Wizards
same side · consensus Pistons
—Pistons $2.1KPistons $42K—
Spread: 76ers (-5.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
—76ers $3.1K76ers $33K—
Hornets vs. Suns: O/U 214.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $5Under $18K—
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
same side · consensus Avalanche
—Avalanche $151Avalanche $11K—
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
same side · consensus Timberwolves
—Mavericks $684Mavericks $7.1K—
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
same side · consensus 76ers
—76ers $1.1K76ers $5.3K—
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5
same side · consensus Under
—Over $280Over $6.1K—
Spread: 76ers (-10.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
—Raptors $508Raptors $5.6K—
Hornets vs. Suns
same side · consensus Suns
—Suns $4.6KSuns $984—
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)
same side · consensus Wizards
—Wizards $3.3KWizards $1.4K—
Spread: 76ers (-7.5)
same side · consensus 76ers
—76ers $1.1K76ers $2.6K—
Spread: 76ers (-11.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
—Raptors $294Raptors $2.9K—
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)
same side · consensus 76ers
—76ers $2.2K76ers $844—
Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 240.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $2.1KUnder $641—
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5
same side · consensus Over
—Under $734Under $702—
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5
same side · consensus Over
—Over $1.2KOver $214—
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 245.5
same side · consensus Over
—Under $70Under $837—
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
same side · consensus Maple Leafs
—Maple Leafs $112Maple Leafs $795—
Hornets vs. Suns: O/U 213.5
same side · consensus Over
—Under $662Under $4—