Hornets vs. Suns

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (71%) · Suns at 70¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Hornets31¢Suns69¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 71%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$122.16

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 69.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hornets31%

Suns70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns5 traders

Total Value$910.63

Total Shares1,286

Combined PnL+$14.83

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$456.24

Total Shares1,367

Combined PnL+$107.33

Suns — 71%Hornets — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Sunsavg 69¢	$534.17	$545.78	+$11.61	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Hornetsavg 25.6¢	$342.1	$440.88	+$98.78	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
OD Oddstorm	Sunsavg 70¢	$115.17	$115.01	-$0.17	23% 36-121 (157)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Sunsavg 68¢	$91.12	$93.13	+$2.01	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Sunsavg 70¢	$82.15	$82.15	+$0.01	47% 299-342 (641)
PU purplegatto<$100	Sunsavg 68.7¢	$73.19	$74.56	+$1.37	69% 2587-1182 (3769)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 27.4¢	$99.67	$15.36	+$8.55	49% 693-734 (1427)

HomeRunHazard

Suns

Invested

$534.17

Value

$545.78

PnL

+$11.61

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

6512395314597884CTR

Hornets

Invested

$342.1

Value

$440.88

PnL

+$98.78

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Oddstorm

Suns

Invested

$115.17

Value

$115.01

PnL

-$0.17

Record

23%

36-121 (157)

Flaznorp<$100

Suns

Invested

$91.12

Value

$93.13

PnL

+$2.01

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

SnakeBall<$100

Suns

Invested

$82.15

Value

$82.15

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

purplegatto<$100

Suns

Invested

$73.19

Value

$74.56

PnL

+$1.37

Record

69%

2587-1182 (3769)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$99.67

Value

$15.36

PnL

+$8.55

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.