Spread: 76ers (-7.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (20%) · 76ers at 60¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
5
76ers 20%
1 arb excluded
$7.5K
-$39.87
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | 76ersavg 60.5¢ | $4.5K | $4.4K | -$76.46 | 59% 17-12 (29) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 39.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$74.9 | 57% 3356-2538 (5894) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 39.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$38.37 | |
| └ 76ers leg | 76ersavg 55¢ | $446.51 | $483.05 | +$36.53 | |
HI hi774cCTR | Raptorsavg 39¢ | $478.75 | $497.16 | +$18.41 | 16% 97-512 (609) |
LI LimousinCTR | Raptorsavg 39¢ | $457.44 | $475.03 | +$17.59 | 32% 489-1029 (1518) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 40¢ | $39.95 | $40.45 | +$0.5 | 47% 394-451 (845) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 39¢ | $2.01 | $2.09 | +$0.08 | 37% 193-335 (528) |
Invested
$4,513.15
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$76.46
Record
59%
17-12 (29)
Invested
$1,950.36
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$74.9
Record
57%
3356-2538 (5894)
Both legs:
Invested
$478.75
Value
$497.16
PnL
+$18.41
Record
16%
97-512 (609)
Invested
$457.44
Value
$475.03
PnL
+$17.59
Record
32%
489-1029 (1518)
Invested
$39.95
Value
$40.45
PnL
+$0.5
Record
47%
394-451 (845)
Invested
$2.01
Value
$2.09
PnL
+$0.08
Record
37%
193-335 (528)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.