Spread: 76ers (-8.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (44%) · Raptors at 51¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 13

76ers50¢Raptors50¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 44%

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$20.07

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers50%

Raptors51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares13,069

Combined PnL+$75.58

76ers5 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares11,287

Combined PnL-$55.51

Raptors — 44%76ers — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Raptorsavg 49.9¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$70.78	52% 754-704 (1458)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	76ersavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$47.56	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
HI hi774cCTR	76ersavg 50¢	$774.2	$766.46	-$7.74	19% 126-532 (658)
38 38791873984189CTR	76ersavg 50¢	$144.5	$143.06	-$1.44	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
LI LightParadox<$100	Raptorsavg 44¢	$77.64	$82.05	+$4.41	33% 551-1131 (1682)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Raptorsavg 44¢	$39.94	$39.94	-$0	46% 438-515 (953)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 50.3¢	$37.75	$37.13	-$0.63	49% 1071-1128 (2199)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	76ersavg 49.6¢	$26.93	$28.79	+$1.86	54% 272-234 (506)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Raptorsavg 44¢	$6.83	$7.22	+$0.39	51% 2526-2431 (4957)

VeryLucky888

Raptors

Invested

$6,386.04

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$70.78

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

HomeRunHazardCTR

76ers

Invested

$4,703.87

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$47.56

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

hi774cCTR

76ers

Invested

$774.2

Value

$766.46

PnL

-$7.74

Record

19%

126-532 (658)

38791873984189CTR

76ers

Invested

$144.5

Value

$143.06

PnL

-$1.44

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

LightParadox<$100

Raptors

Invested

$77.64

Value

$82.05

PnL

+$4.41

Record

33%

551-1131 (1682)

SnakeBall<$100

Raptors

Invested

$39.94

Value

$39.94

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

438-515 (953)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$37.75

Value

$37.13

PnL

-$0.63

Record

49%

1071-1128 (2199)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$26.93

Value

$28.79

PnL

+$1.86

Record

54%

272-234 (506)

Flaznorp<$100

Raptors

Invested

$6.83

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$0.39

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.