Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors 76ers (62%). 7 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 76ers (-1.5)

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (41%) · Raptors at 39¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 13

76ers62¢Raptors38¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 41%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 38.5¢

-29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers62%

Raptors39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers10 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares12,319

Combined PnL+$388.63

Raptors7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares11,118

Combined PnL$-1.6K

76ers — 59%Raptors — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	76ersavg 45.3¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$127.06	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Raptorsavg 54.7¢	$5.5K	$3.9K	$-1.6K	22% 31-107 (138)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	76ersavg 46¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$13.99	52% 411-380 (791)
OM omnibus-076daa	76ersavg 50¢	$537.43	$661.04	+$123.61	42% 306-427 (733)
RN1	76ersavg 46¢	$285.07	$381.4	+$96.34	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 49.4¢	$300.77	$337.04	+$36.26	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 31¢	$85.27	$169.13	+$83.86
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 49.4¢	$215.5	$167.91	-$47.59
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Raptorsavg 43.2¢	$217.48	$322.39	+$104.91	54% 1122-947 (2069)
DA darkumbreon88	76ersavg 69¢	$184.5	$189.84	+$5.35	61% 979-617 (1596)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Raptorsavg 69¢	$280.33	$156.42	-$123.92	42% 16-22 (38)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50.5¢	$143.66	$114.04	-$20.44	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.5¢	$112.49	$85.75	-$26.14
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 49.1¢	$22.59	$28.29	+$5.7
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	76ersavg 45.4¢	$102.28	$95.81	+$6.79	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 45.4¢	$50.15	$51.32	+$0.69
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 49¢	$40.79	$44.49	+$6.1
nigiri99CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 31¢	$44.64	$55.44	+$10.8	52% 388-362 (750)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 42.8¢	$40.59	$47.31	+$6.72	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	76ersavg 31¢	$22.63	$44.89	+$22.26	59% 3030-2107 (5137)
FL Flaznorp<$100	76ersavg 31¢	$19.85	$21.71	+$17.33	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
dips.<$100	76ersavg 31¢	$8.64	$17.13	+$8.5	46% 593-709 (1302)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	76ersavg 47¢	$11.34	$12	+$0.66	48% 367-391 (758)
FE ferdinand2<$100	76ersavg 31¢	$1.55	$3.08	+$1.53	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 30¢	$2.7	$2.75	+$0.04	51% 3788-3581 (7369)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.55	+$0.25	35% 657-1232 (1889)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

76ers

Invested

$4,099.19

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$127.06

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

luckycat888888CTR

Raptors

Invested

$5,472.01

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

22%

31-107 (138)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

76ers

Invested

$1,287.54

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$13.99

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

omnibus-076daa

76ers

Invested

$537.43

Value

$661.04

PnL

+$123.61

Record

42%

306-427 (733)

RN1

76ers

Invested

$285.07

Value

$381.4

PnL

+$96.34

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$300.77

Value

$337.04

PnL

+$36.26

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

Both legs:

76ers$85.2731¢+$83.86

Raptors$215.549.4¢-$47.59

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Raptors

Invested

$217.48

Value

$322.39

PnL

+$104.91

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

darkumbreon88

76ers

Invested

$184.5

Value

$189.84

PnL

+$5.35

Record

61%

979-617 (1596)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Raptors

Invested

$280.33

Value

$156.42

PnL

-$123.92

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

takeormakeARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$143.66

Value

$114.04

PnL

-$20.44

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

Both legs:

Raptors$112.4950.5¢-$26.14

76ers$22.5949.1¢+$5.7

38791873984189ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$102.28

Value

$95.81

PnL

+$6.79

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Both legs:

76ers$50.1545.4¢+$0.69

Raptors$40.7949¢+$6.1

nigiri99CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$44.64

Value

$55.44

PnL

+$10.8

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$40.59

Value

$47.31

PnL

+$6.72

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

76ers

Invested

$22.63

Value

$44.89

PnL

+$22.26

Record

59%

3030-2107 (5137)

Flaznorp<$100

76ers

Invested

$19.85

Value

$21.71

PnL

+$17.33

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

dips.<$100

76ers

Invested

$8.64

Value

$17.13

PnL

+$8.5

Record

46%

593-709 (1302)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

76ers

Invested

$11.34

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.66

Record

48%

367-391 (758)

ferdinand2<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.55

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$1.53

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

3788-3581 (7369)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.25

Record

35%

657-1232 (1889)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.