Sabres vs. Blackhawks

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sabres (44%) · Sabres at 59¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 13

Sabres59¢Blackhawks41¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sabres

Consensus Traders

Sabres 44%

Total Value

$19.0K

Combined PnL

$87.91

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 58.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSabres at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sabres

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sabres59%

Blackhawks42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sabres4 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares17,037

Combined PnL-$68.58

Blackhawks5 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares21,593

Combined PnL+$156.49

Sabres — 44%Blackhawks — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Sabres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sabres) and the top 1000 (8 on Blackhawks) disagree here.

ctrSabres 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSabres 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Blackhawks 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Sabresavg 59¢	$8.5K	$8.4K	-$71.71	52% 370-342 (712)
RO royalestakeCTR	Blackhawksavg 41.2¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$100	5% 10-187 (197)
BA BabooouCTR	Blackhawksavg 41.5¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$30	— 8-7 (15)
VeryLucky888	Sabresavg 58¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$1.19	52% 816-742 (1558)
BA banepirCTR	Blackhawksavg 41¢	$656	$672	+$16	— 11-8 (19)
Stickman22CTR	Blackhawksavg 41¢	$402.05	$411.85	+$9.81	— 8-6 (14)
FL Flaznorp	Sabresavg 57¢	$110.58	$112.52	+$1.94	51% 2643-2567 (5210)
BA Bayupati<$100	Sabresavg 58¢	$7.12	$7.12	-$0	12% 18-134 (152)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 41¢	$38.1	$5.16	+$0.68	54% 1036-900 (1936)

nigiri99

Sabres

Invested

$8,461.78

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$71.71

Record

52%

370-342 (712)

royalestakeCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$5,359.96

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$100

Record

10-187 (197)

BabooouCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$2,489.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$30

Record

—

8-7 (15)

VeryLucky888

Sabres

Invested

$1,512.56

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.19

Record

52%

816-742 (1558)

banepirCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$656

Value

$672

PnL

+$16

Record

—

11-8 (19)

Stickman22CTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$402.05

Value

$411.85

PnL

+$9.81

Record

—

8-6 (14)

Flaznorp

Sabres

Invested

$110.58

Value

$112.52

PnL

+$1.94

Record

51%

2643-2567 (5210)

Bayupati<$100

Sabres

Invested

$7.12

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$0

Record

12%

18-134 (152)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$38.1

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0.68

Record

54%

1036-900 (1936)

Research grade

NeutralSabres at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Sabres

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Sabres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sabres) and the top 1000 (8 on Blackhawks) disagree here.

ctrSabres 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSabres 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Blackhawks 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sabres wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.