Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pistons, while the market favors Wizards (52%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pistons (-7.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (64%) · Pistons at 49¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons49¢Wizards51¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$18.95

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 48.5¢

+5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons49%

Wizards52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,924

Combined PnL-$28.59

Pistons9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,481

Combined PnL+$47.55

Wizards — 36%Pistons — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Wizardsavg 52.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$29.24	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Pistonsavg 45¢	$769.09	$777.64	+$8.55	52% 411-380 (791)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Wizardsavg 51.1¢	$540.23	$497.26	-$42.97	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.1¢	$352.04	$268.53	-$83.51
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 50.2¢	$188.19	$228.74	+$40.55
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Pistonsavg 48¢	$454.14	$465.42	+$11.28	54% 1122-947 (2069)
AN Anon455CTR	Pistonsavg 45¢	$355.95	$359.91	+$3.96	49% 303-310 (613)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Pistonsavg 45¢	$207.62	$206.49	-$1.13	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pistonsavg 48¢	$159.24	$169.19	+$9.95	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 49.9¢	$99.3	$96.52	-$2.78	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pistonsavg 45¢	$121.95	$84.2	+$15.6	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Wizardsavg 49¢	$74.39	$75.94	+$1.56	48% 367-391 (758)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Wizardsavg 40.5¢	$35.65	$35.25	-$0.4	47% 564-628 (1192)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 45¢	$15.91	$18.04	+$2.13	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
VE Venusian<$100	Wizardsavg 40¢	$10	$10	+$0	33% 629-1267 (1896)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Wizardsavg 55¢	$8.03	$7.52	-$0.51	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 60¢	$3	$3	+$0	38% 509-821 (1330)

RN1

Wizards

Invested

$1,391.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$29.24

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Pistons

Invested

$769.09

Value

$777.64

PnL

+$8.55

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$540.23

Value

$497.26

PnL

-$42.97

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Both legs:

Wizards$352.0451.1¢-$83.51

Pistons$188.1950.2¢+$40.55

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Pistons

Invested

$454.14

Value

$465.42

PnL

+$11.28

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Anon455CTR

Pistons

Invested

$355.95

Value

$359.91

PnL

+$3.96

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

6512395314597884CTR

Pistons

Invested

$207.62

Value

$206.49

PnL

-$1.13

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pistons

Invested

$159.24

Value

$169.19

PnL

+$9.95

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$99.3

Value

$96.52

PnL

-$2.78

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

38791873984189CTR

Pistons

Invested

$121.95

Value

$84.2

PnL

+$15.6

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Wizards

Invested

$74.39

Value

$75.94

PnL

+$1.56

Record

48%

367-391 (758)

SnakeBall<$100

Wizards

Invested

$35.65

Value

$35.25

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

564-628 (1192)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$15.91

Value

$18.04

PnL

+$2.13

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

Venusian<$100

Wizards

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

629-1267 (1896)

ferdinand2<$100

Wizards

Invested

$8.03

Value

$7.52

PnL

-$0.51

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.