Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (75%) · Timberwolves at 51¢ · $821 held · ends Nov 13

Timberwolves51¢Mavericks49¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 75%

Total Value

$821.36

Combined PnL

$8.79

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves51%

Mavericks50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves6 traders

Total Value$775

Total Shares1,540

Combined PnL+$8.35

Mavericks2 traders

Total Value$46.36

Total Shares94

Combined PnL+$0.44

Timberwolves — 75%Mavericks — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mavericks) and the top 1000 (7 on Timberwolves) disagree here.

ctrTimberwolves 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Timberwolvesavg 49.6¢	$427.61	$435.67	+$8.06	54% 529-455 (984)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$252.5	$252.5	+$0	49% 507-532 (1039)
38 38791873984189<$100	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$53.5	$54.04	+$0.54	48% 2125-2324 (4449)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 49¢	$43.47	$43.91	+$0.44	52% 754-704 (1458)
SU suntori<$100	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$19.04	$18.67	-$0.37	47% 1541-1714 (3255)
PA Pan9X<$100	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$12.5	$12.63	+$0.13	49% 1071-1127 (2198)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.45	+$0	38% 482-799 (1281)
HI hi774c<$100	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$1.5	$1.5	+$0	19% 126-532 (658)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Timberwolves

Invested

$427.61

Value

$435.67

PnL

+$8.06

Record

54%

529-455 (984)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Timberwolves

Invested

$252.5

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

507-532 (1039)

38791873984189<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$53.5

Value

$54.04

PnL

+$0.54

Record

48%

2125-2324 (4449)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$43.47

Value

$43.91

PnL

+$0.44

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

suntori<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$19.04

Value

$18.67

PnL

-$0.37

Record

47%

1541-1714 (3255)

Pan9X<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

1071-1127 (2198)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

482-799 (1281)

hi774c<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

126-532 (658)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mavericks) and the top 1000 (7 on Timberwolves) disagree here.

ctrTimberwolves 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.