Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 50¢ · $754 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 63%
$754.06
$2.39
49.2¢ → 49.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $284.69 | $287.59 | +$2.9 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 49.6¢ | $221.75 | $219.03 | -$2.72 | 52% 352-328 (680) |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $194.06 | $196.04 | +$1.98 | 19% 126-532 (658) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $18 | $17.64 | -$0.36 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $19.75 | $17.43 | +$0.22 | 49% 1072-1133 (2205) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $12.58 | $12.7 | +$0.13 | 54% 274-237 (511) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.75 | $2.81 | +$0.06 | 33% 534-1108 (1642) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $34.3 | $0.82 | +$0.17 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
Invested
$284.69
Value
$287.59
PnL
+$2.9
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$221.75
Value
$219.03
PnL
-$2.72
Record
52%
352-328 (680)
Invested
$194.06
Value
$196.04
PnL
+$1.98
Record
19%
126-532 (658)
Invested
$18
Value
$17.64
PnL
-$0.36
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
Invested
$19.75
Value
$17.43
PnL
+$0.22
Record
49%
1072-1133 (2205)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$12.58
Value
$12.7
PnL
+$0.13
Record
54%
274-237 (511)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.81
PnL
+$0.06
Record
33%
534-1108 (1642)
Invested
$34.3
Value
$0.82
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.