Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Blue Jackets, while the market favors Lightning (54%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Blue Jackets (50%) · Blue Jackets at 47¢ · $656 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Blue Jackets
6
Blue Jackets 50%
1 arb excluded
$655.64
-$5.34
46.2¢ → 46.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBlue Jackets at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Lightning 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Blue Jacketsavg 50¢ | $200 | $198 | -$2 | 100% 71-0 (71) |
| └ Lightning leg | Lightningavg 50¢ | $100 | $106 | +$6 | |
| └ Blue Jackets leg | Blue Jacketsavg 50¢ | $100 | $92 | -$8 | |
38 38791873984189CTR | Blue Jacketsavg 46¢ | $170.2 | $170.2 | -$0 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
 nigiri99CTR | Blue Jacketsavg 47¢ | $114.68 | $112.24 | -$2.44 | 52% 235-217 (452) |
RO roldyCTR<$100 | Blue Jacketsavg 45¢ | $53.09 | $54.27 | +$1.18 | — 4-5 (9) |
 KnureKnume<$100 | Lightningavg 56¢ | $50.4 | $47.7 | -$2.7 | 7% 6-83 (89) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Lightningavg 53¢ | $36.66 | $36.66 | +$0 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Lightningavg 55¢ | $37.95 | $36.57 | -$1.38 | 49% 786-829 (1615) |
Invested
$200
Value
$198
PnL
-$2
Record
100%
71-0 (71)
Both legs:
Invested
$170.2
Value
$170.2
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$114.68
Value
$112.24
PnL
-$2.44
Record
52%
235-217 (452)
Invested
$53.09
Value
$54.27
PnL
+$1.18
Record
—
4-5 (9)
KnureKnume<$100Invested
$50.4
Value
$47.7
PnL
-$2.7
Record
7%
6-83 (89)
Invested
$36.66
Value
$36.66
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$37.95
Value
$36.57
PnL
-$1.38
Record
49%
786-829 (1615)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.