Pistons vs. Wizards
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (40%) · Pistons at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Pistons
5
Pistons 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$26.03
80.4¢ → 78.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPistons at 79%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9F 0x9f41...8f27 | Pistonsavg 81¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$25.66 | — |
PU purplegatto | Pistonsavg 78¢ | $361.14 | $377.34 | +$16.2 | 69% 2587-1182 (3769) |
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Pistonsavg 77.8¢ | $168.09 | $165.85 | -$2.24 | 23% 36-121 (157) |
| └ Pistons leg | Pistonsavg 77.8¢ | $120.38 | $126.15 | +$5.77 | |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 22.2¢ | $47.71 | $39.7 | -$8.02 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 24¢ | $60 | $45 | -$15 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 20.7¢ | $9.63 | $8.36 | -$1.27 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 19.3¢ | $4.54 | $4.24 | -$0.3 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
Invested
$1,385.67
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$25.66
Record
—
Invested
$361.14
Value
$377.34
PnL
+$16.2
Record
69%
2587-1182 (3769)
Invested
$168.09
Value
$165.85
PnL
-$2.24
Record
23%
36-121 (157)
Both legs:
Invested
$60
Value
$45
PnL
-$15
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$9.63
Value
$8.36
PnL
-$1.27
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$4.54
Value
$4.24
PnL
-$0.3
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.