Hornets vs. Suns: O/U 214.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 57%
$2.4K
$33.45
49.8¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Overavg 50.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$14.01 | 52% 352-328 (680) |
JO JoeyAroyyOO | Overavg 48¢ | $240 | $252.5 | +$12.5 | 48% 116-124 (240) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $122.5 | $123.75 | +$1.25 | 52% 761-712 (1473) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $97.02 | $99.99 | +$2.97 | 32% 538-1125 (1663) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $48 | $50.5 | +$2.5 | 44% 165-210 (375) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $11.94 | $12.06 | +$0.12 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $9.8 | $9.9 | +$0.1 | 54% 274-237 (511) |
nigiri99Invested
$1,809.04
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$14.01
Record
52%
352-328 (680)
Invested
$240
Value
$252.5
PnL
+$12.5
Record
48%
116-124 (240)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$122.5
Value
$123.75
PnL
+$1.25
Record
52%
761-712 (1473)
Invested
$97.02
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$2.97
Record
32%
538-1125 (1663)
Invested
$48
Value
$50.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
44%
165-210 (375)
Invested
$11.94
Value
$12.06
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
274-237 (511)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.