Spread: 76ers (-4.5)
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (38%) · 76ers at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
8
76ers 38%
$1.5K
-$28.35
61¢ → 59.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | 76ersavg 61¢ | $933.17 | $889.56 | -$22.61 | 53% 852-766 (1618) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Raptorsavg 38.8¢ | $199.72 | $198.05 | -$1.67 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Raptorsavg 40¢ | $146.95 | $145.25 | -$1.7 | 57% 3458-2629 (6087) |
NM NM-PCTR | Raptorsavg 39¢ | $112.07 | $110.63 | -$1.44 | 59% 3584-2449 (6033) |
GC GC-PCTR | Raptorsavg 39¢ | $111.81 | $110.38 | -$1.43 | 30% 193-457 (650) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | 76ersavg 60¢ | $15 | $15.13 | +$0.13 | 49% 1100-1151 (2251) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 33¢ | $3.28 | $3.87 | +$0.6 | 47% 564-628 (1192) |
SU suntori<$100 | 76ersavg 70¢ | $1.75 | $1.52 | -$0.23 | 46% 1757-2031 (3788) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$933.17
Value
$889.56
PnL
-$22.61
Record
53%
852-766 (1618)
Invested
$199.72
Value
$198.05
PnL
-$1.67
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Invested
$146.95
Value
$145.25
PnL
-$1.7
Record
57%
3458-2629 (6087)
Invested
$112.07
Value
$110.63
PnL
-$1.44
Record
59%
3584-2449 (6033)
Invested
$111.81
Value
$110.38
PnL
-$1.43
Record
30%
193-457 (650)
Invested
$15
Value
$15.13
PnL
+$0.13
Record
49%
1100-1151 (2251)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$3.87
PnL
+$0.6
Record
47%
564-628 (1192)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.52
PnL
-$0.23
Record
46%
1757-2031 (3788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.