Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Stars (69%). 3 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Stars (-1.5)

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (21%) · Jets at 32¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 13

Stars69¢Jets31¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 21%

Total Value

$17.6K

Combined PnL

-$89.69

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 31.5¢

-49% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

3 of 14 top traders (21%)Underdog side (market favors Stars 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Stars69%

Jets32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets3 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares16,486

Combined PnL+$247.07

Stars11 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares19,950

Combined PnL-$336.76

Jets — 21%Stars — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrStars 88% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Stars 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoroCTR	Jetsavg 62¢	$10.2K	$10.4K	+$246.1	27% 7-19 (26)
nigiri99	Starsavg 38¢	$6.2K	$5.8K	-$324.66	52% 399-371 (770)
AN AnonymousUsername	Starsavg 36¢	$867.1	$866.18	-$0.92	43% 54-72 (126)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Starsavg 37¢	$296	$288	-$8	20% 226-923 (1149)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Starsavg 38¢	$64.21	$60.83	-$3.38	42% 317-438 (755)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Starsavg 36¢	$39.69	$39.69	+$0	45% 143-173 (316)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Starsavg 69¢	$37.26	$36.99	-$0.27	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
0xheavy888<$100	Starsavg 37¢	$37	$36	-$1	56% 324-253 (577)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jetsavg 31¢	$12.71	$12.91	+$0.2	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jetsavg 31¢	$11.78	$12.54	+$0.76	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
GH ghorrock<$100	Starsavg 36¢	$12.25	$12.25	+$0	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Starsavg 31.7¢	$8.57	$9.74	+$1.17	36% 577-1014 (1591)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Starsavg 69¢	$6.9	$6.85	-$0.05	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
38 38791873984189<$100	Starsavg 31¢	$2.19	$2.55	+$0.35	47% 2408-2683 (5091)

chubbytoroCTR

Jets

Invested

$10,172.16

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$246.1

Record

27%

7-19 (26)

nigiri99

Stars

Invested

$6,168.54

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$324.66

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

AnonymousUsername

Stars

Invested

$867.1

Value

$866.18

PnL

-$0.92

Record

43%

54-72 (126)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Stars

Invested

$296

Value

$288

PnL

-$8

Record

20%

226-923 (1149)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Stars

Invested

$64.21

Value

$60.83

PnL

-$3.38

Record

42%

317-438 (755)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Stars

Invested

$39.69

Value

$39.69

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

143-173 (316)

Flaznorp<$100

Stars

Invested

$37.26

Value

$36.99

PnL

-$0.27

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

0xheavy888<$100

Stars

Invested

$37

Value

$36

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

324-253 (577)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$12.71

Value

$12.91

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$11.78

Value

$12.54

PnL

+$0.76

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

ghorrock<$100

Stars

Invested

$12.25

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

topdogbigboi<$100

Stars

Invested

$8.57

Value

$9.74

PnL

+$1.17

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

ferdinand2<$100

Stars

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

38791873984189<$100

Stars

Invested

$2.19

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 32%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

3 of 14 top traders (21%)Underdog side (market favors Stars 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrStars 88% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Stars 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.