Wild vs. Maple Leafs

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wild (20%) · Wild at 62¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 13

Wild62¢Maple Leafs38¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wild

Consensus Traders

Wild 20%

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

-$74.72

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 61.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralWild at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wild

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wild62%

Maple Leafs39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wild2 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares17,155

Combined PnL+$46.11

Maple Leafs8 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares15,637

Combined PnL-$120.83

Wild — 20%Maple Leafs — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Wild. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpWild 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperWild 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaple Leafs 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMaple Leafs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Maple Leafs 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459	Wildavg 61.7¢	$8.4K	$8.3K	-$26.24	— 8-2 (10)
RO roldyCTR	Maple Leafsavg 40¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$120	— 7-8 (15)
nigiri99	Wildavg 60¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$72.35	51% 327-309 (636)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Maple Leafsavg 38¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$0.91	35% 33-60 (93)
VeryLucky888CTR	Maple Leafsavg 38¢	$760	$760	+$0	52% 716-669 (1385)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Maple Leafsavg 38¢	$481.85	$481.85	+$0	57% 3430-2596 (6026)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 38¢	$76	$76	+$0	54% 258-216 (474)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 38¢	$59.66	$59.66	+$0	48% 1017-1087 (2104)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 38¢	$48.55	$49.19	+$0.64	41% 524-744 (1268)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 39¢	$21.81	$21.25	-$0.56	53% 852-745 (1597)

0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459

Wild

Invested

$8,375.3

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$26.24

Record

—

8-2 (10)

roldyCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2,399.98

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$120

Record

—

7-8 (15)

nigiri99

Wild

Invested

$2,146.63

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$72.35

Record

51%

327-309 (636)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2,215.6

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$0.91

Record

35%

33-60 (93)

VeryLucky888CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$760

Value

$760

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

716-669 (1385)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$481.85

Value

$481.85

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3430-2596 (6026)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$76

Value

$76

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

258-216 (474)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$59.66

Value

$59.66

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1017-1087 (2104)

sentrioCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$48.55

Value

$49.19

PnL

+$0.64

Record

41%

524-744 (1268)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$21.81

Value

$21.25

PnL

-$0.56

Record

53%

852-745 (1597)

Research grade

NeutralWild at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wild

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Wild. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpWild 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperWild 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaple Leafs 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMaple Leafs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Maple Leafs 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wild wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.